The question is no longer whether France has entered a “9th wave” of Covid-19, but how far it will climb.
All the indicators are up sharply, two weeks from school holidays and three weeks from Christmas.
In its epidemiological bulletin published Thursday evening, Public Health France considers in particular that "a strengthening of vaccination is essential" and that "adherence to barrier gestures, including the wearing of a mask, should be accentuated to protect the most vulnerable " .
We take stock.
Incidence rate up sharply, everywhere in France
Nearly 55,000 positive cases are now recorded every day (on average) in France, i.e. an incidence rate close to 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over seven days.
The increase is almost 40% per week.
This count necessarily underestimates the real number of infections, because some infected people are content with a self-test at home without declaring it or do not even get tested.
The symptoms experienced are often quite “severe” (fatigue, fever, headaches or stomachaches, etc.).
No region or age group is spared by this 9th wave.
Over a week, the incidence rate increases by at least 20% in almost all departments.
Including the overseas territories, only one territory shows a drop: Mayotte.
In addition, the incidence is increasing in all age groups.
It is lowest in children under the age of 10… who are also the least tested.
The number of tests (antigenic and PCR) carried out each day is also on the rise.
It is logical: the more positive cases there are, the more contact cases there are, and therefore people who are supposed to be tested.
The fact remains that the positivity rate, corresponding to the number of positive people compared to the number of people tested, has also started to rise again.
BQ.1.1 Majority?
This epidemic resumption is probably explained, in part, by the arrival of the BQ.1.1 variant.
This little newcomer to the large Omicron family appeared in France at the very beginning of autumn.
It accounted for 49% of positive cases in the sequencing survey conducted on November 7 (the last for which data is available, due to the lab strike).
Everything suggests that it is therefore, today, the majority among new infections.
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“We have never seen one of the Omicron sub-variants prevail without causing an epidemic wave, and we do not really see why this would not be the case this time”, Antoine Flahault already told us in mid-October. , director of the Institute of Global Health in Geneva.
The extent of this wave is however impossible to predict, as the parameters are numerous (natural immunity and real vaccination, arrival of the cold, behavior of the French, etc.).
More than 1,000 daily hospitalizations
The symbolic bar was - again - reached on Thursday: the number of patients diagnosed with Covid-19 and admitted to hospital each day (on average), up 25% over one week, rose above 1 000. According to data from Public Health France, two thirds of them are treated “for Covid” (the others were infected with SARS-CoV-2 but are treated for another disease) .
The increase is just as clear in critical care: 94 daily admissions of Covid-19 patients, up 32% over one week.
In total, nearly 20,000 Covid-19 patients are currently hospitalized.
Just over 1,000 of them are in critical care.
Again, these numbers are on the rise.
Probably at the worst time, given the lack of staff experienced by many services and the start of the flu epidemic.
Booster vaccination is slipping away
Vaccination is one of the main weapons at our disposal to limit the risk of a serious form.
But the recall campaign this fall is a flop.
Less than 10% of people over 60 have received a dose of the vaccine adapted to Omicron since October 3, compared to more than 70% in England.
The fault, in particular, of a kind of “vaccination fatigue” and the headache of knowing who is eligible.
“We have three effective weeks left before Christmas, it is now that vaccination is played out to guarantee the strongest possible protection, to have a good holiday season and to avoid saturation of hospital structures!
“urged the Ministry of Health on Tuesday.