The Italian GDP is expected to grow at a still sustained pace in 2022 (+3.9%) and then slow down significantly in 2023 (+0.4%).
Istat communicates this in its Report on the outlook for the Italian economy in 2022-2023, specifying that the increase in GDP would be supported by the contribution of domestic demand net of inventories, while net foreign demand would provide a negative contribution in both years.
Investments are expected to represent the driving force of the Italian economy both in 2022 (+10.0%) and, to a lesser extent, in 2023 (+2.0%).
In June, Istat estimated +2.8% for 2022 and +1.9% for 2023.
This year and next, employment, measured in terms of work units (AWU), will mark a higher growth than that of the GDP with a more pronounced increase in 2022 (+4.3%) compared to that of 2023 (+ 0.5%).
The improvement in employment will be accompanied by that of the unemployment rate which will drop significantly this year (8.1%) and then record a slight increase in 2023 (8.2%).
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Inflation is expected to decelerate in the coming months, albeit with uncertain timing and intensity.
On average in 2022, the rate of change in the household spending deflator is expected to grow (+8.2%, it was +1.6% in 2021) while the GDP deflator will mark a significant but more limited increase (+3, 6%, was +0.5% in 2021).
Assuming that upward pressure on raw material prices will be contained in the coming months and in the presence of a stabilization of oil and exchange rates, adds Istat, inflation is expected to partially decelerate next year.
The Statistical Institute further explains that the prolonged phase of price growth, supported by the exceptional increase in those of energy goods, is expected to have repercussions on the