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Awaiting the Fed, towards a new rate hike, tomorrow the ECB

2022-12-14T18:05:32.215Z


Weak bags. The yield of BTPs is close to 4% (ANSA)    European stock markets close weak waiting for the Fed tonight, and for the Bank of England and the ECB tomorrow. Frankfurt loses 0.24% with the Dax at 14,463 points. Paris also recorded a -0.24% with the Cac 40 at 6,730 points and London a -0.09% with the Ftse 100 at 7,495 points. The spread between Btp and Bund closes on the rise. The differential is close to 192 points (191.8) with the yield


   European stock markets close weak waiting for the Fed tonight, and for the Bank of England and the ECB tomorrow.

Frankfurt loses 0.24% with the Dax at 14,463 points.

Paris also recorded a -0.24% with the Cac 40 at 6,730 points and London a -0.09% with the Ftse 100 at 7,495 points.

The spread between Btp and Bund closes on the rise.

The differential is close to 192 points (191.8) with the yield on the Italian ten-year bond rising to 3.85% (+7 points) after having reached 3.906%.



    The shock cure by the American central bank, with six increases in the cost of money since the beginning of the year, four of which in a row by 0.75%, seems to be starting to have an effect on prices.

While the 2% target is still a long way off now, going forward, the Fed should loosen its grip.

Analysts assume a hike of 0.50% from the current meeting, followed by further hikes by 25 basis points in February and March, when the rate level should approach 5%.



    The slowdown in inflation should in fact allow the Fed more room for maneuver in evaluating the effects of its policy on the economy.

What is certain is that the next moves will not be easy and the US central bank risks splitting on how to proceed, and on what amount of hikes to make.

The doves led by Vice President Lael Brainard will likely prefer to tread carefully to avoid a recession.

The hawks, on the other hand, could pull Jerome Powell by the jacket and press for higher increases in the cost of money.



Expectations are also high for the ECB, which will announce its monetary policy decisions on Thursday

.

The slowdown in line with estimates of German inflation to 11.3% is good news for Christine Lagarde, even if accompanied by a greater than expected drop in the Zew index.

The Eurotower, as well as the Fed, should opt for a more cautious increase of half a percentage point after the two maxi-rises of three quarters of a point both in September and in October, but at the same time ensuring that it does not want to give up in the all-time battle 'inflation.

"It is essential" to bring it back to 2%, reiterated Lagarde in recent days, committing the ECB to decide on the basis of available data.

"How far we need to go and how fast we need to get there will depend on our updated perspectives, the persistence of shocks,



    The markets await the 'one-two punch' from the Fed and the ECB, waiting to understand the assessments on the state of the economy amidst the many uncertainties that reign, primarily the war in Ukraine and its effects on energy. 


Source: ansa

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