On video: Protest against the corona restrictions in Shanghai, China (Reuters)
For quite some time it seemed that the corona was finally behind us, but recently the reports are multiplying that the virus is returning - and in a big way.
The daily rate of infections in Israel is close to 19 percent, and it seems that it may continue to rise.
At the same time as this alarming increase, a new study reveals how heavy the cost in human life was during the peak days of the epidemic, and it was much heavier than we thought.
In a new international study, conducted in collaboration with PhD student Ariel Karlinsky from the Department of Economics and the Center for the Study of Rationality at the Hebrew University, the true death rate from the Corona epidemic in the world was revealed - almost 15 million people between 2020-2021.
The findings, published today (Wednesday) in the journal Nature, show that in many countries, such as India, Russia and Egypt, mortality from corona is significantly higher than what is officially reported.
"Many countries did not report the number of deaths reliably"
The study is the result of a committee of experts, convened by the World Health Organization, to assess mortality from Corona.
In order to quantify the levels of mortality from the virus on a global scale, the team of researchers made a comparison between the mortality data for the years 2020-2021 and the number of deaths from all causes that would have been expected in the absence of the epidemic.
"We saw that in March 2021, for example, the expected death rate in Brazil was 117,000 people on average, when in fact more than 212,000 people died," explains Karlinski, "We used a statistical mathematical model to predict deaths and deduce the level of mortality from corona in countries that reported partial data or did not report at all ".
According to the researchers, the model they developed is able to calculate the extent of excess mortality in countries with missing data according to characteristics such as the level of economic development or geographic location.
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The findings revealed that the corona virus led to excess mortality in almost every country in the world, with many of them not reporting the number of deaths reliably.
Karlinsky explains that "in many countries, such as India, Russia, Nicaragua and even in neighboring Egypt, the mortality from Corona was significantly higher compared to what was reported, when each country had its rate (for example, 10 times in India or 5 times in Russia)".
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"Hopefully the states will reexamine many deaths."
Transferring a patient to a hospital for corona patients in Russia at the height of the epidemic (Photo: Reuters)
"In total, our estimate is 14.83 million excess deaths related to Corona worldwide - an estimate 3 times higher than the official numbers at the time," he added.
According to the experts, future studies in the field must take into account the excess mortality and not rely only on official reports that can lead to wrong conclusions.
"We hope that the countries will re-examine many deaths and, if necessary, update the exact death toll from the virus on a regular and reliable basis to prevent the next virus from harming our lives," concluded Dr. William Masamburi from the World Health Organization.
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