Half month, half meteorological winter: January 15 could be the date of the first turning point towards a decisive change of season.
From Sunday colder and unstable air could gain ground towards the Mediterranean bringing back weather conditions more typical of the current season.
Lorenzo Tedici, meteorologist of the website www.iLMeteo.it, confirms that, after some rain expected between tonight and tomorrow, the comeback of the anticyclone will be short-lived.
From Sunday 15 January it is probable, but obviously to be confirmed, a change of season with snowfall not only in the Alps but also in the Apennines: good news for the ski tourism sector of the central-southern regions.
The synoptic situation of the weekend will in fact see the withdrawal of the Azores anticyclone towards its place of origin, therefore towards the Azores Islands in the middle of the Atlantic.
No longer protecting the Mediterranean, polar sea currents from the North Sea could sink the blow to the south.
Precipitation is expected from Sunday, snow locally even at low altitudes at the beginning of the new week in the Po Valley and at hilly altitudes on the Apennine ridge with temperatures towards the average for the period.
We're talking about temperatures towards the average of the period and not a freezing Arctic trip, but this is already making news: returning to the January average after weeks of abnormal heat reminds us that we are in the coldest month of the year together with February.
While waiting for the change of season, days with highs above 15°C are still waiting for us, days that will be more reminiscent of autumn than winter.
In detail, the weather today will be mostly clear with peaks of 17 degrees in Sardinia, Sicily and Calabria.
From the evening a rapid perturbation will bring some rain to the North and to Tuscany;
Given the speed of this mild Atlantic perturbation, the sun will be the protagonist again between Friday and Saturday but, as mentioned, from Sunday 15 January we will be able to see a general change: rainfall is expected first over Liguria and the North-East and from Monday also along the Tyrrhenian;
finally, from Tuesday bad weather could affect a large part of Italy in a widespread way with possible snow at low altitudes in Piedmont.
We have put many ingredients to the fire and there are still several days left for this hypothetical weather turnaround: we will follow the evolution indicated by the medium-term models and understand if, as they say in jargon, 'this will be the right time' for change!
IN DETAIL
Wednesday 11th
: in the North, serene or partly cloudy skies;
increasing cloudiness from the evening.
In the middle: prevailing good weather, clouds towards Tuscany in the evening.
In the south: alternating between clouds and clear spells, in a dry context.
Thursday 12:
in the North, variable in the morning then improves.
In the centre: scattered rains on the Tyrrhenian side until the morning, then large clearings.
In the south: rains to come, especially on the lower Tyrrhenian Sea.
Friday 13th:
in the North, partly cloudy except for gatherings in Liguria.
In the centre: scattered clouds over the Tyrrhenian regions, sun elsewhere.
In the South: last showers on the lower Tyrrhenian then it improves rapidly already in the morning.
Trend
: stable and mostly sunny weather on Saturday, worsening again on Sunday and on following days.
