Businesses expect inflation to remain at record levels for at least another year, and only decline thereafter.
This is what emerges from the survey conducted by
the Bank of Italy
among Italian companies in the industry and services with at least 50 employees.
Expectations on consumer price inflation, we read, have " reached their highest levels in all sectors since the beginning of the survey in 1999. The expected rate of consumer price inflation stands, on average, at 8.9% in six months (from 7.5 in the previous survey), to 8.1 in 12 months The dynamics of the prices charged by companies should remain sustained in the next 12 months.
Firms
' assessments "on the general economic situation and on their operating conditions in the fourth quarter of 2022" and on demand improve,
but "the difficulties associated with economic and political uncertainty and high energy prices" continue and merge from investigation.
"Capital accumulation is expected to continue in 2023: assessments of a worsening of investment conditions remain far higher than those of an improvement, but the negative balance has halved compared to the previous survey", we read.
"Employment would continue to grow in the first quarter of the year."
The expensive energy continues to be discharged on the sales prices of Italian companies.
Almost two out of three companies, according to the survey conducted by the Bank of Italy among companies with at least 50 employees, will adjust their price lists in the next three months.
According to 10.2, 10.8 and 8.6 per cent of building, industrial and service companies, the increase will be markedly intense.
For 41.6 percent of companies, explains the survey by the Bank of Italy, in the fourth quarter of 2022 energy price increases caused similar or greater difficulties than in the previous three months (from 54.9 in the previous survey).
The problems remain more relevant for construction companies (60.0) and industry in the strict sense (44.9) than those of services (36.4).
Despite the unfavorable assessments on the conditions for investing, the balance between forecast increases and decreases in spending on capital goods remained positive in all sectors, signaling a continuation of accumulation (13.8 percentage points, as in the last survey referring to 2022) .
In the first half of 2023, investment spending is expected to increase compared to the previous semester for around 37 per cent of companies,
a percentage more than double of those who expect a reduction (16.8 percent).
The share of companies in industry in the strict sense and in services that expect to expand the number of employees in the first quarter of 2023 was 11.0 percentage points higher than that of those who anticipate a reduction, an improvement on the previous survey ;
in the construction sector, the share remained substantially unchanged (at 11.8 percentage points).
Codacons, high prices already cost 61.3 billion
Bank of Italy's forecasts on inflation and prices confirm the alarms raised in recent weeks by Codacons, and the consequent sting that will hit Italians in 2023 due to the tensions on price lists produced by the high energy price.
"The picture drawn by Bank of Italy is alarming, with two out of three companies intending to adjust prices upwards in the next quarter - explains the president Carlo Rienzi - This means new inflation which will add to that recorded in 2022 already costing, based on the Codacons elaborations, 61.3 billion euros to Italian families, about 2,369 euros per resident household in 2022 alone".
"All indicators tell us that the new year will be disastrous in terms of prices and tariffs,