Births at their lowest since 1946: can we speak of a baby crash?

In 2022, the French wanted to get married en masse… But never before have they been so numerous to abandon or delay their plans for a child.

Never have births fallen so low since the creation of INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) in 1946.

Here, in a quick summary, are two essential lessons from the traditional annual "demographic report" made public this Tuesday at noon by INSEE.

Should we see a delayed effect of the Covid?

A consequence of the increase in precariousness (the lack of confidence in the future remaining a determining factor in this matter)?

Or is it a structural trend linked to the decline in female fertility, year after year for ten years?

“It is very difficult to answer these questions, at a minimum, we can say that there was a small effect of the epidemic because in January 2022, births were particularly low.

They correspond to the procreations of the third confinement, in the spring of 2021”, advances Sylvie Le Minez, the head of the demographic and social studies unit at Insee.

Rest assured.

Our country will still be the most fertile country in Europe in 2022.

“But the gap is now very small with countries like Romania.

France is less and less an exception, ”notes Didier Breton, professor of demography at the University of Strasbourg (Bas-Rhin) and associate researcher at INED (National Institute for Demographic Studies).

In 2022, never so many babies will have been born in our country since the post-war period: 723,000 were born, according to estimates made at the end of November.

This is part of a long-term trend.

It should be noted that between 2015 and 2020, births were fewer and fewer each year.

The year 2021 represents a parenthesis in this area.

"It was a real surprise, but we can't talk about a baby boom that year," tempers Sylvie le Minez.

From June, in 2021, the postponement of baby projects from the start of Covid seems to have played a major role in the increase in the birth rate observed.

Then comes 2022 and there, the curve collapses.

Economic and climatic crises, inflation, war in Ukraine...

“In the fall, mainly in September and October, we fell to particularly low thresholds.

One can wonder if this was not linked to the economic crisis, to the inflation which was high, ”suggests the head of the demographic studies unit.

“The Covid was followed by an economic crisis marked by high inflation, and a political crisis linked to the war in Ukraine, but also a climate crisis.

In summary, since 2020, the crises follow one another, which is not favorable to the decision to have a child ”, adds Didier Breton.

The future will tell if this drop in births is long-term (like the total fertility rate which now stands at 1.80 children per woman after falling for years) or if the phenomenon is temporary, more related to the socio-economic context.

It should be noted that while couples are having fewer and fewer children, they are also deciding to have them later and later.

An - interesting - detail should be noted in this 2023 edition of the INSEE report: the fertility rate of women under 30 has been falling since the 2000s, while women aged 35 to 39 are in average more children in recent years.

Their fertility rate increased in 2021. And even in 2022, it does not experience a decline, it stabilizes.

In the end, wouldn't women and couples be able to have the number of children they want?

This is in any case the position of the National Union of Family Associations (Unaf).

"The personal ideal number of children of the French is 2.39 at the same level as ten years earlier", assures the association.

“Why don't parents have the number of children they want?

We know that the answer is largely material: before starting to have children, couples first want to ensure adequate housing, stable employment and sufficient financial resources”.