Vladimir Putin risks being overthrown in a coup within a year.
This is supported by Abbas Gallyamov, speechwriter of the Kremlin leader until 2010 and a profound connoisseur of his personality who, in an interview with CNN, explains why the failure of the war in Ukraine is accelerating the political decline of the tsar.
"The Russian economy is suffering under the weight of Western sanctions, the war is lost. Every day more and more corpses are returning home. Russians are starting to wonder why all this is happening. And their answer is: 'Because we are governed by a old tyrant, an old dictator,'" Gallyamov said, speculating that "a military coup could happen in the next twelve months."
In a year, he explained, "the political situation will change, the war will be really unpopular and the president will be hated more and more".
For the former speechwriter it is very likely that the tsar will cancel the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024 and declare martial law: "If he doesn't win the war in Ukraine, he will be in trouble in front of the Russian people. The Russians don't need him if he is not strong. At this point he could cancel the vote and declare martial law".
As for the conditions of the Kremlin leader, the former collaborator claims that he is physically better than in April and May.
But the problem is behavioral.
"He acts in an unpredictable and illogical way. One day he promotes a general, the next he demotes him. One moment he gives too much power to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the next he takes it away from him", explains the analyst referring to the founder of the mercenary group Wagner who is gaining more and more power over the
Russian army in Ukraine.
Not only that, according to Gallyamov, the 'macho' image that Putin has always wanted to give of himself is "disintegrating".
"It got too emotional," he says.
"Before he was a rational man, he was able to control himself.
Now it is as if his hands move by themselves.
And in the eyes of the people, he is turning from a great strategist into a second-class dictator".
In conclusion, for Putin's former speechwriter, given the situation, very little would be enough "to light the fuse" of a coup, also considering discontent and frustration that have been creeping for months in the ranks of the Moscow army. "The commanders of the armed forces of an authoritarian nation are opportunists," explains Gallyamov. "Once an uprising starts, the loyalty of the previous day evaporates and the leaders military take the side of whoever has the most chance of winning".