China announces the end of the wave of covid-19 after 1.1 billion infections

The long-awaited calm after the storm is already a fait accompli in China, according to authorities.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assures that the wave of covid-19 infections has subsided and that "there is no evidence" that the feared exponential increase in cases has occurred during the celebrations for the lunar New Year of which the experts warned.

The abrupt easing of the measures imposed for three years to stop the spread of the coronavirus caused an unprecedented tsunami of infections at the end of December that put the Asian giant's health system on the ropes.

In recent weeks, the Government, which estimates that between December 8 and February 2, more than 1.1 billion Chinese contracted the covid and more than 80,000 died,

“The sharp drop in the number of deaths and infections from covid-19 indicates that China has emerged from the current wave,” a CDC official was quoted as saying by the nationalist

newspaper on Sunday .

According to official statistics, 3,278 people died between January 27 and February 2, almost half the number of the previous week (January 20-26), a period in which 6,364 deaths were recorded.

The data published by the health authorities show that the latest outbreak of infections in China, the most severe since the start of the pandemic, has begun to subside after reaching its peak on December 22, a day in which 6, 94 million new cases.

By comparison, about 24,000 infections were reported on January 30.

The CDC estimates that more than 80% of the population has been infected in this wave and that 82,238 people died between December 8 and February 2.

Officials from that institution also reported that the number of critical cases dropped 72% at the end of January compared to the end of December, while daily deaths in hospitals fell 79% on those same dates.

However, the balance in a nation of 1.411 million inhabitants contrasts enormously with estimates from Western countries based on their own experiences during the onslaught of the omicron variant.

In its update on Wednesday, the British medical data analysis company Airfinity points out that 1.3 million deaths could have occurred in China since December 1.

Since the CDC only reports deaths in hospitals, analysts abroad say the real impact of the situation is being underestimated.

Faced with the suspicion of the West and pressure from the World Health Organization, which demands transparency, China has recognized that the margin of error is large due to the pressure of the situation and has promised to make a recalculation in the future.

The estimate will be made by calculating the difference between the number of people who have died in the country during this wave, regardless of the cause, and the average of recent years.

In theory, this would include deaths from covid in patients who were not diagnosed, as well as those who died due to the saturation of health services.

Although authorities continue to urge caution, life pretty much as it was known before 2020 has returned to China.

The elimination of almost all anti-covid measures – the only residue that remains is the mask, the use of which is only mandatory on public transport and places of risk, such as hospitals or centers for the elderly – encouraged many to pack their bags and travel during the just finished Spring Festival, the first without restrictions in three years.

The Ministry of Transport estimates that around 2,100 million trips have been made during the 40-day period around the festivities, which is why there was particular concern that infections spread in rural areas, with fewer resources and more emergency systems. weak.

However, according to CDC officials quoted by local media, "there is no evidence that there was an upturn during or after the holiday week, when tens of millions of people traveled to their homes of origin and then returned to the cities in those who work

The data provided by the provinces also confirms that the latest wave of infections has come to an end."

Contrary to early estimates by the country's virologists, Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist at the CDC, has ruled out a new wave in the next two to three months.

“The possibility of a spike in cases across the country is very small,” he wrote on Weibo (Chinese Twitter) on Chinese New Year's Eve.

However, from the CDC they remember that leaving this phase "does not mean that covid-19 has ended."

"Due to the possible appearance of new variants and the decrease in antibody levels among the population after six months, a new wave is expected to occur in China around June or July," warns the expert quoted by the

, who adds that "it is unlikely to equal that of December."

In his opinion, "it will not overwhelm the medical system and there will not be so many seriously ill patients."

The Government put an end to the strict covid zero strategy on December 7, when the capital, Beijing, was facing the biggest outbreak since the start of the pandemic.

A week earlier, hundreds of people had taken to the streets of the country's main cities to demand an end to the iron control policy that had dominated their lives for almost three years.

The general weariness of daily PCR tests and mobility restrictions, the profound damage to the economy, and the shock at a sequence of tragedies related to anti-covid protocols encouraged many young people to gather in these unusual protests.

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