The centre-right's expectations and hopes of a double victory in Lombardy and Lazio next Sunday and Monday are palpable.
Even if the majority that supports the action of the Meloni government has to deal with the risks of an excessive electoral imbalance of the coalition in favor of Fdi: a possible scenario that would put Fi and Lega in further tension, especially in the main Italian region, which historically it determined the leadership of Matteo Salvini's party.
The deputy premier is playing this game to the end by closing the campaign for the regional ones in Brescia and focusing on the workhorses of autonomy and infrastructure to recover the consensus eroded by the Brothers of Italy in the last political elections.
An electoral session, that of last September 25,
which has completely rewritten the balance of power in the centre-right, with Fdi at 27% and the other two allies just over 8%.
An imbalance that explains the current nervousness of Lega and Fi.
With Silvio Berlusconi, who in an almost exclusively televised electoral campaign (apart from last Tuesday's Milanese event in Milan) engages with the issue of autonomy (strongly felt in the Northern regions) but also looks to the South and speaks of infrastructures such as the bridge over the Strait.
The League in Lazio has dropped from 9.9% of the 2018 Regionals to 6.1% of the policies: a further arrest would push the hypothesis of a national party towards the archiving, that Lega per Salvini Premier which had even abandoned the green color in favor of blue.
But if the result of the policies were repeated for Salvini on Sunday in Lombardy too, a return to the Northern League of Bossi and the Carroccio would also become very complicated.
The result achieved by Via Bellerio on 25 September is very far from the 29.6% of the 2018 Regionals. Not only fewer councilors and fewer councilors, but an overall weakening of the party and its leader.
In the end, Bossi's Northern Committee did not present its list in support of Attilio Fontana, who would have stolen support from the League;
however it could direct preferences towards the civic list of the Governor, who in fact declared that Ideal Lombardy aims at 5-6%, while five years ago it obtained only 1.46%.
For Fi the speech is analogous.
In both Regions it saw a drop in consensus from 2018 to 2022 (from 14.3% to 7.9% in Lombardy and from 14.6% to 6.8% in Lazio).
The two Regions are the fiefdoms of the two internal currents, led by Licia Ronzulli and Antonio Tajani and the irremovability of Berlusconi's leadership could transform the party into a pressure cooker.
For Giorgia Meloni the difficulty would consist in managing a great victory in the government.
Results that are too favorable to the Brothers of Italy in the context of the centre-right would increase the nervousness of the two further downsized allied parties.
Then there is a question of a political profile.
If Fdi confirms 27.6% of the policies in Lombardy, it is feared in political circles of the Azzurri and of the former Carroccio, we could effectively speak of a national party driven to interpret the productive North from a position of strength.
A vocation that perhaps would push Fdi to a strong redefinition of its profile, with a justified ambition also in view of the Veneto and Piedmont regionals, if Luca Zaia and Alberto Cirio wanted to go to Europe in 2024. (ANSA).