The Italian economy
is starting to avoid recession also in the first quarter of 2023
.
This year growth will have a low dynamic, slightly above or below +0.6%, but better than expected.
This is what the Confindustria Research Office foresees.
"The price of gas - he explains - is much lower at the beginning of the year than expected for the end of 2022: a good premise for the first quarter, for business costs and for the return path of inflation from the peak, which began at the end 2022".
For 2023 "there is a generalized and important upward revision compared to the post-summer estimates, when stagnation or a moderate recession were expected".
The drop in the price of energy since the end of 2022, which in any case remains well above the levels of two years ago, "is favoring the reduction of inflation in Italy and Europe (albeit still at high values) and this suggests the end rate hike by 2023 (not before a couple more hikes)."
If general inflation falls, the cost of non-energy raw materials increases (+16.8% for metals) and the trend in prices excluding energy and food is also up (+4.6% from +4, 2%), for the transmission of price increases on other assets.
Italy also proves to be very resilient, with industrial production improving and after the rebound in January (+1.6%) following a three-month decline, the qualitative data for January "paint an improving scenario".
In construction, on the other hand, a continuation of the weakness is expected.
Confindustria's flash trend also shows household consumption holding up with "prudent consumption decisions due to high inflation" and "spending shifted even more towards discount stores".
There are then more jobs, but also more labor shortages.
Exports are slowing down, between a Eurozone with an uneven recovery and the USA where growth is without industry.
