Bills for households and businesses will be lighter in the coming months, if the price of gas remains below 50 euros per megawatt hour
.
And for those who have the rates set by Arera,
the lowest estimated cost, on an annual basis for a typical family, could be close to 600 euros: 234 euros for gas, 363 euros for electricity.
"Perhaps we exaggerated with the panic last autumn, but what matters are
the prices now in sharp decline"
, says the president of
Nomisma Energia, Davide Tabarelli,
explaining that it is "the minimum since December 2021 and 6 times lower than the peak at the end of August at over 300 euros".
The drop in gas is pushing down the price of electricity throughout Europe and also in Italy.
The gas bills, which are determined one month late, will be decided at the beginning of March by Arera "but with these international prices we can
estimate a 17% drop to 0.83 euros per cubic meter
, a level not seen since the summer of 2021, and for families it is a potential savings, on an annual basis, of 234 euros", underlines Tabarelli.
The electricity bill, on the other hand, has a different calculation method and is fixed in advance for all the following three months. The next update of the Arera will be on April 1st.
"With these prices we can hope for a
25% drop
at 40 cents per kilowatt hour, with savings on an annual basis for the typical family, which consumes 2,700 kilowatt hours a year, of 363 euros", explains the president of Nomisma again, thus returning with the tariffs "to the values of the end of 2021", but yes it is still "twice the 20 cent average" at which tariffs had fluctuated in recent years, Tabarelli points out. The collapse of regulated tariffs "compresses" the inflation rate which "will fall heavily below 10% in March" , explains the president of Nomisma, underlining that this is "excellent news" for Italy, given that it is the "country most exposed, with its gigantic debt, to the increase in the cost of interest rates".
But "excellent news" also for the "mortgages and wages" of Italians, adds Tabarelli.
However, it is "too early" to declare "the crisis over", he warns.
"International gas prices are always double the long-term averages and are almost 5 times the gas prices in the United States, where, for this reason, energy prices are vastly lower than households and, especially companies have to pay in Europe", explains Tabarelli.
"In such a dramatic crisis, instability, recently on the decline, is the only certainty, therefore we need to be satisfied with the decline, but also ready for a possible, albeit now unlikely, rebound in the coming weeks", warns Tabarelli, suggesting that to avoid it"
