The experts had been announcing that, due to a cyclical issue that occurs
every three years
, this could become a
high season for dengue
.
Based on what the figures are beginning to show at this point in 2023, the forecast could not be wrong.
The latest Epidemiological Bulletin, corresponding to week 6, reported that the number of dengue cases in the country totaled 324 up to that cutoff, of which 275
were autochthonous
.
The latter means that those infected did not have a history of traveling abroad where they could contract the infection.
These 275 autochthonous cases represent an
8-fold
increase compared to the 34 reported by the bulletin the previous week.
In any case, this variation does not explain much if it is not compared with the behavior of dengue
in other years
.
It is there where it can be seen that the dengue curve in 2023 presents levels similar to that of the year that set
a record in the country
.
In the 2019-2020 season there were
56,293 cases
confirmed by laboratory or epidemiological link.
And at least
26 deaths
from the disease.
If the number of autochthonous cases up to week 6 of 2023 is compared with the number at the same time of the year in 2020, the figure reveals that in the current year the number of autochthonous cases registered exceeds 73 percent
.
to the one recorded on that occasion:
275 against 159
.
On the other hand, if the total confirmed dengue cases (autochthonous and imported) are taken into account for both week 6 of 2020 and 2023, the balance turns in favor of 2020, when the count marked 465 total
infections
, while the latest record now indicates a total of 324.
To have another point of reference with a year in which dengue did not generate an alert, for this same time of 2022 there were only three
confirmed cases: two
with a travel history and one autochthonous case in Salta.
At the same time, another 20 probable (unconfirmed) autochthonous cases were reported.
Until 2020, the record was held by the 2015-16 season, when the record marked a total of
41,749 cases
.
The concern in 2020 was, furthermore, that dengue fever overlapped with the then nascent Covid pandemic.
Despite the premature confinement that Argentines lived through, the
Aedes aegypti
mosquito - oblivious to 'captivity' - continued to spread the virus.
The growth of autochthonous cases in several localities of the country indicates that
the community circulation of dengue is increasing
.
When an imported case appears, what is sought, through prevention measures from the State, is to cut the chain of contagion and that this infection is not
the first link
in more local infections.
In absolute terms, the current figures are still low due to the height of the year.
However, the comparison between this season and 2020
marks a trend
and could be a herald of things to come.
An effective fight against the mosquito vector could avoid repeating the fate of three years ago.
A female Aedes aegypti obtains human blood through her pointed stylet.
Photo: EFE
One of the weapons under study -in addition to the fumigations, the disposal campaigns and the use of repellents- is a work that is progressing in the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA) for the breeding of sterile males in order to prevent the
mosquito
from reproduce.
What infectologists point out, which would partly explain a strong wave of dengue this year -in addition to the cyclical argument- is what they call "
immune silence"
: all-terrain defenses have 'slowed down' after the pandemic, have specialized in a single type of threat.
This is how dengue once again forces to adjust the reins in the context of health concerns, when the Covid shows increasingly meager figures: the latest official report places the weekly cases at 1,172, a number close to the historical floor of the end
of
October of 2022.
The post-Covid immune drowsiness, which the human being will have to shake off to fight various diseases again, is added to an exogenous component:
drought
, environmental damage due to which some populations must accumulate water as they can, which gives rise to more reservoirs of mosquitoes.
Fumigation in Nueva Esperanza, Peru.
The country declared an emergency in 13 regions.
Photo: AFP
Currently the most affected province in the country is
Santa Fe
, which in seven towns concentrates more than a third of the autochthonous cases in the country.
There are also autochthonous cases in Salta, Jujuy, the City of Buenos Aires and Tucumán.
The situation of increasing circulation of the virus in our country
is no exception to the region
.
In Brazil, Bolivia -it had 26 deaths in recent days-, Paraguay and Peru there are more cases than in Argentina.
Peru declared a health emergency due to the dengue outbreak in 13 regions.
According to the Mundo Sano Foundation, based on data from the World Health Organization (WHO), a
third of the planet's inhabitants
are at risk of contracting dengue.
Every year there are about 390 million cases in the world, of which 500 thousand correspond to severe dengue with around 25 thousand deaths.
This viral disease is transmitted through the bite of the
Aedes aegypti
mosquito .
Although it is not spread from person to person, those affected, whether
symptomatic or asymptomatic
, are the main carriers and multipliers of the virus.
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