Unédic, which manages the unemployment insurance scheme, announced on Tuesday that it forecast a surplus of 3.8 billion euros in 2023, slightly revised downwards compared to its previous forecasts in October, of the order of + 4.2 billion.
The joint body, which presented its financial forecasts for the unemployment insurance scheme for 2025, also forecasts a positive balance of +4.7 billion in 2024 and +8.6 billion in 2025, "supported
by economic and regulatory factors
”.
The previous forecast was less optimistic for 2024 (+4.2 billion).
These surpluses would make it possible to absorb part of the debt, which would stand at -55.5 billion at the end of 2023, -50.8 billion at the end of 2024 and -42.2 billion at the end of 2025. A reduction which “allows us to prepare for the
future
and to "
deal with any economic shocks, in particular by regenerating the capacity to call on the financial markets if necessary
", emphasizes Unédic.
Revenues would amount to 45.7 billion in 2023, 47.5 billion in 2024 and 48.9 billion in 2025, an increase "
mainly due to the dynamics of wages driven by inflation
".
Read alsoUnemployment insurance: a reform for full employment
Conversely, by 2025 "
expenditure would decline, due to the economic recovery and the impact of the unemployment insurance reforms that came into force in 2021 and 2023, estimated at 5.2 billion in 2025
".
Total expenditure would stand at 41.9 billion in 2023, 42.8 billion in 2024 and 40.3 billion in 2025. The reform that came into force on February 1 provides for a 25% reduction in the duration of compensation for all job seekers who open rights.
On the employment side, in 2023 the net creation of jobs affiliated to unemployment insurance should slow down sharply (+6,000, against +305,000 in 2022), mainly driven by entries into apprenticeships.
They should restart in a limited way in 2024 (+66,000) and more significantly in 2025 (+152,000).
