The Italian economy enters 2023 with lights and shadows.
The GDP, only with the boost of 2022, has already acquired a growth of 0.4%.
But there are still signs of uncertainty that risk having an impact.
Starting with household spending, which under the weight of high prices and high energy costs, reverses course and marks a drop of more than one percentage point.
There remains the uncertainty that could come from the increase in interest rates, which sees the government putting diplomatic pressure on the ECB's choices.
But also the possibility that growth of 1% can be achieved.
The president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, says it clearly when speaking in Matera.
"If they allow us to do so, we will exceed 1%, despite everyone saying that we will grow between 0.4% and 0.8%.
Put us in a position to invest and we will make the country grow even more".
To give the picture of the situation is Istat which photographs the last quarter of 2022, confirming "the slight contraction in production activity", while continuing "for the eighth consecutive quarter the recovery in tendential terms, even if at gradually slower pace". In fact, GDP closed the fourth quarter with a contraction of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter and +1.4% +1.7% of the preliminary estimate) compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. In the light of this trend, the growth acquired for 2023, i.e. the one that would be obtained if all the quarters of this year recorded a zero change, is positive and equal at 0.4%.
A figure which, according to the official forecasts, from the Nadef to the PBO to the IMF, should eventually settle at +0.6%, with an expectation of a further rise up to nearly +1%.
The drop in national final consumption weighed on GDP in the fourth quarter: in fact, households are tightening their belts, with the expenditure of resident households recording a -1.6% and, in particular, household expenditure in the economic area (net i.e. expenditure abroad by residents and expenditure in Italy by non-residents) which recorded a 1.3% cyclical decline.
A change of course compared to the growth of the previous quarters.
What has an impact is inflation which, in the forecasts of the Bank of Italy, will curb household consumption also in 2023.
The race in prices slowed down in February to +9.2%, but not the shopping cart (which rose to +13%).
And inflation which, although decreasing, remains high throughout Europe, was one of the topics of the bilateral meeting between Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti and his French counterpart Bruno Le Maire.
The concern in Rome is for the ECB's next moves: "Inflation is everyone's real problem and I don't think it can be solved only with a restrictive interest rate policy", says the head of the Treasury.
And while the pressure from consumers is mounting for the government to intervene by stemming the high-energy emergency, Giorgetti assures that the executive is "finalizing proposals to meet people's real needs".