Dengue fever on the rise and the tail of the Covid: what is the chance of a simultaneous infection

Before it was

, now it is

.

He knows it, with resignation, even a boy who lives in Argentina or in some other country in the region.

What he does not know is that this succession of evils

: it can be simultaneous.

And this is what the latest available data could be insinuating.

Despite the fact that the pandemic seems to be fading, the Covid figures for the last week show

, after having hit a floor 15 days ago.

The Epidemiological Bulletin -the only current source of information, the reports having been canceled- gives an account of this "rebound" of the curve.

The lowest historical mark had been located, in the first week of March, just above 800 cases.

The last reported figure already

.

increase

.

The good news is that the positivity of the tests remains stable or even slightly below previous weeks.

Strictly speaking, the rebound would not be such, or at least not for now.

All of these 1,600 cases correspond not

, but to delayed information from the previous ones.

This has been explained in the Epidemiological Bulletin, a detail that the old part -schematic and infographic- did not provide.

There was always a record delay and there will always be.

In any case, the accumulation of cases could once again be revealing a presumed

, which will have to be seen if it is sustained.

The novelty, moreover, is that the possible regrowth -which the colder weather in autumn could promote- coexists this time with a

.

The latest figures already place the number of registered dengue infections

, of which more than 90 percent correspond to community circulation in different regions of the country.

The latter is a differential characteristic of the 2023 wave of dengue compared to that of 2020, which was a historical record.

Although on that occasion at this time of the year the totality of registered cases was 30 percent higher than the current one,

is much higher now.

Of the

.

It means that in the current dengue epidemic there are considerably fewer people who brought the disease from Brazil or Paraguay.

Therefore, the circulation of the virus transmitted by the

mosquito occurred at

at the local level than three years ago.

Now, what is the chance of a

based on the present epidemiological scenario?

It is known that the possibility of both infections

in the same organism exists.

And that the fact that the presence of one has been confirmed is not a condition for ruling out the other.

have been described in Argentina and other countries

in the past.

Scientists developed a mathematical model for the

.

The conclusion was close to common sense: it depends on the magnitude of the waves of dengue and Covid.

And also the context.

Bearing in mind that dengue and Covid share some symptoms, 

 could be difficult without a laboratory test.

However, if these symptoms occur today in Mataderos -the epicenter of dengue in Buenos Aires- a priori it is more likely that the infected person has dengue before Covid.

The current dengue trend would lead one to believe that the numbers between now and the middle of the year will have a

.

More uncertain is, on the other hand, the situation of Covid, a virus that has lived with humans for more than three years and is still unpredictable.

The background indicates that if the rise in Covid continues,

.

The consequences of that combo acting at the same time are not too clear.

The scientific literature has so far spoken of

: one innocuous and the other of more serious pictures. 

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