Tuesday the new targets of the Def, GDP 2023 close to 1%

The GDP bar is starting to be revised upwards for this year.

The economic and financial document that the government will approve on Tuesday in the council of ministers will certify a +0.9% trend (under current legislation), which could reach at least +1% in the programmatic framework, which takes into account the measures that the executive intends to adopt.

But there is one variable that is being watched carefully, and it is the boost on GDP of the Pnrr, which between delays, changes in governance and the third installment still on standby in Brussels, could be more contained than expected.

The positive trend of the economy expected in the first half of the year bodes well for GDP in 2023.

The Bank of Italy confirms the "slight recovery" of the Italian gross domestic product in the first quarter,

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"According to our models, economic activity in Italy would have increased slightly in the first quarter of 2023, supported by the manufacturing sector, which benefits from the decline in energy prices and the easing of bottlenecks along the supply chains", highlights the Bulletin economy of Via Nazionale, which points out how, however, inflation still weighs on consumption, with household spending remaining "weak".

A picture similar to that provided yesterday by the Parliamentary Budget Office, which highlighted "signs of moderate recovery in the first quarter", with GDP reportedly starting to expand again, at a moderate pace, with balanced risks in the short term.

But in the medium term "downside risks to growth" continue to prevail, warns the

In the Def marked by "prudence" on which Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti is working, a 2023 trend GDP of +0.9% will be indicated: three decimals more than the programmatic 0.6% in November and six compared to the trend.

Considering that with the legacy of 2022 alone, growth in 2023 is already at 0.4%, and that a few decimals could be added in the coming quarters, the 0.6 point boost expected by the Pnrr appears already reduced.

On the other hand, the forecasts for the following years appear less rosy: for 2024 and 2025, the forecasts of the Def should be lower than those set by the Nadef in November (+1.8% trend in 2024 and +1.5% for 2025) .

The new estimates will also set the bar for the trend deficit at 4.35%.

One level (compared to 4,

5% programmatic of the Nadef) which could allow new spaces to the government for the next measures.

At the top of the list is the start of the tax reform, with the cut in the personal income tax rates;

but aid to households and businesses also needs to be renewed beyond the second half of the year.