The ECB has embarked on a process of tightening monetary policy and, faced with the risk of a more pronounced increase in interest rates in Italy, it is better to lighten the position on Italian BTPs and prefer Spanish government bonds.
The suggestion came today from Goldman Sachs which foresees a particularly uncertain future.
In a report dedicated to the yields of the debts of states between the US and Europe, and sent to their customers in recent days, reports Bloomberg, American analysts said they expect the spread between the BTPs and the Bund to rise to 235 basis points by the end of year.
Italian stocks, in particular, will come under pressure from the acceleration of quantitative tightening in June - basically the
exit from the policy of safeguard purchases by the ECB - and by further rate hikes by the central bank.
"Go short on 10-year BTPs against the Bonos" is therefore their advice.
Indeed, US analysts are expecting an increase in the risk premium which will be more marked in Italy than in Spain.
Therefore, faced with an expected reduction in the price of Italian securities, market operators are expected to sell BTPs short.
To make a profit they will then borrow the securities, sell them on the market and then buy them back at a lower price.
Goldman Sachs analysts expect the ECB to step up monetary tightening in the coming months, more likely from June rather than from the next meeting on May 4th.
Meanwhile, Pierre Wunsch,
governor of the Belgian central bank who sits on the ECB governing council, is blowing interest rate hikes and says he is "not surprised" if at a certain point we have to switch to a 4% cost of money.
"We are waiting for wage growth and core inflation to slow down before we can get to the point where we can stop" the rise in the cost of money, he added, speaking to the Financial Times Wunsch.
The ECB raised deposit rates at an unprecedented pace from -0.5% last July to 3% and the markets are now betting on an increase up to 3.75%.
The pressing, which comes from the hawks, however has no impact on the markets that take further rises for granted: the Milan stock exchange closed with a drop of 0.75%, which on the day the coupons are detached is equivalent to a rise of 0.61 %.
As far as Italy is concerned, Goldman Sachs analysts also dwell on the fact that uncertainty about the implementation of the Recovery Fund could continue, "which in our opinion could begin to weigh on growth expectations at a national level".
And this is why they are betting on a return of the spread between ten-year BTPs and the German Bund, currently around 185 points, to 235 basis points.
In the light of all these prospects, the American bank suggests betting against BTPs and betting on Spanish Bonos from next month.
In fact, US analysts believe that this situation favors the downward bet on BTPs to the advantage of Spanish securities, also thanks to the better growth prospects, as well as solid progress with respect to the objectives of financing the public deficit.
Currently, BTPs seem to be navigating in rather calm waters, even in spite of the recent rate hike, with yields fluctuating around 4.35%, below the peaks of over 4.6% reached in March and 4.50% at the beginning year.
Meanwhile, international geopolitical scenarios are also destined to increase uncertainty and therefore the decisions of central banks on rates.
Global fragmentation "may also influence the monetary policy of the ECB" reported Fabio Panetta, member of the executive committee in Frankfurt.
"Geopolitical shocks can trigger persistent volatility in production and inflation, with multiple spillovers," he added, explaining that "Russia's aggression against Ukraine, for example, has disrupted the energy and commodity markets,