The period 2023-2027 will be with near certainty the warmest ever recorded on Earth. This situation should occur under the combined effect of greenhouse gases and the El Niño weather phenomenon, which are raising temperatures, warned Wednesday the UN (United Nations).
In addition, global temperatures are soon expected to exceed the most ambitious goal of the Paris climate agreements, warns the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). "There is a 98% probability that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record," the WMO said.
New #StateofClimate update from WMO and @MetOffice:
66% chance that annual global surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of next 5 years 98% likelihood that at least one of next five years
will be warmest on
record. pic.twitter.com/30KcRT9Tht
— World Meteorological Organization (@WMO) May 17, 2023
It estimates that the annual average global surface temperature is 66% likely to exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C for at least one of the next five years.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels from 1850 to 1900 and, if possible, to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Health, food security, water management and environment
The data released on Wednesday "does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C threshold of the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years," said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. "However, WMO is sounding the alarm that the 1.5°C threshold will be temporarily breached with increasing frequency."
"An El Niño event is expected to develop in the coming months. Combined with human-induced climate change, it will drive global temperatures to unprecedented levels," says the climate specialist. And to leave no illusions about the gravity of the situation, the Finn insisted on the need to prepare because "the repercussions on health, food security, water management and the environment will be considerable".
El Nino, is a natural climatic phenomenon generally associated with rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and extreme phenomena such as increased drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains in others. It last occurred in 2018-2019 and gave way to a particularly long episode of La Niña of almost three years, which causes the opposite effects and in particular a drop in temperatures.
Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of Australia may be spared this year
In early May, WMO estimated that there was a 60 per cent chance of El Niño developing by the end of July and an 80 per cent chance by the end of September. Typically, El Niño raises global temperatures within a year of its onset, which is 2024 for this cycle.
Despite the moderating effect of La Niña, the last eight years have been the warmest on record and 2016 holds the record. Greenhouse gases (the three main ones are CO2, methane and nitrous oxide) that are at record levels in the atmosphere, trap heat and raise temperatures.
"Global average temperatures are expected to continue to rise, moving us further and further away from the climate we're used to," said Leon Hermanson, an expert scientist with the UK's national meteorological service, the Met Office. It serves as WMO's main centre for annual to decadal climate forecasts. This year's forecasts, which begin at the end of 2022, come from 145 ensemble members, provided by 11 different institutes. "Confidence in global average temperature forecasts is high, as retrospective forecasts reveal that all measurements are very reliable," the WMO said.
Global average land and sea surface temperatures have increased since the 1960s. By 2023, they are expected to be above the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions except Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of Australia, according to WMO. Parts of the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be cooler than average.
