Made in Italy continues to be a driving force for the Italian economy with exports growing again this year. "Despite the economic context, we expect that Made in Italy in 2023 will bring an additional export growth in value of about 50 billion euros". To say it is Luca Burrafato, head of Mediterranean countries, Middle East and Africa for Allianz Trade. According to the study carried out by the insurance company and presented at the launch of the event 'L'Italia delle Imprese 2023', global trade will grow slowly in terms of volumes (+0.7% against +3.8% in 2022) and will have a contraction in terms of value (-0.1% against +9.7% in 2022). In this mixed environment, Italian exporters see a darker picture, but sales will continue to grow. In particular, 43% of the increase in Italian exports would be concentrated in the five leading markets: Germany, France, the United States, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. And services (including tourism) will account for 60% of the total increase. "This year it will be even more necessary to work with the right partners, given the rebound in insolvencies that will grow by 21% globally," explains Burrafato. As for monetary policy tightening, "we expect the full impact to peak in the fourth quarter of the year and continue into 2024," said Allianz Trade Chief Economist Ludovic Subran. The first signs are already evident with the contraction of private credit to companies". Among the main challenges reported by Allianz Trade, there is first and foremost the implementation of the PNRR, alongside those related to the world of work and demographic aspects. According to the manager, "it will be increasingly essential that all governments, as well as in Italy, work effectively to promote active policies for the family and that they are supportive between generations, without disregarding a broader reasoning around the labor market". According to the survey carried out by Allianz Trade on 3,000 companies in 7 countries including Italy, about 70% of companies expect an increase in turnover generated by exports in 2023, compared to almost 80% last year and 94% before the start of the war in Ukraine. One in two companies expects a moderate increase in turnover, of between 2% and 5%, compared to double-digit growth in 2022. Companies in the countries most affected by the energy crisis, including Italy, are the least optimistic about the long wave in energy costs. As for corporate insolvencies at European level, "we expect a number of insolvencies equal to 59,000 in France (+41% per year), 28,500 in the United Kingdom (+16%), 17,800 in Germany (+22%) and 8,900 in Italy (+24%)", says Burrafato. In the US, we expect a 49% increase due to tighter credit conditions and the expected sharp economic slowdown, which would imply a return to more than 20,000 defaults per year.
In collaboration with:
Allianz Trade