This Thursday, the temperature will reach 39°C in the City and Greater Buenos Aires.
It will be the peak of the
first metropolitan heat wave in 2024
, which is estimated to persist for five more days.
But already this Wednesday, remote control in hand, Argentines, especially in the metropolitan area, combat the stress with their
air conditioners,
and questions begin about whether a good part of Argentina is about to
turn off
.
While some experts consulted by
Clarín anticipate that this
energy uncertainty
is "totally valid"
or others already mention that, during the next 24 hours, we are going to enter a kind of
"blackout alert"
.
With this choreography of splits
giving everything
so that we can endure the extreme pressure of the thermometer, how much can the energy system endure?
"This Wednesday the peak of energy consumption could be reached between 3 and 4 p.m. The forecast is
29,086 MW
. On Tuesday it was 26,920 MW, and the previous week's measurement was 21,661 MW.
We are in a potential risk area ( of cuts)
", analyzes for
Clarín
Salvador Gil, expert in energy efficiency and director of the Energy Engineering degree at UNSAM.
Heat wave in the City and the fear every summer due to the risk of power outages.
Photo: Emmanuel Fernández
If that happens, the record of maximum historical consumption
would be surpassed ,
the 29,105 MW that was reached on March 13, 2023, at 3:28 p.m.
That was an anomalous March due to the level of heat.
The exact past and present data comes from Cammesa, the wholesale administrator of the electrical system, which at 4 p.m. on the last day of this January already recorded a consumption of 28,296 MV.
Technically, it is called a "SADI lawsuit."
Acronyms that correspond to the Argentine Interconnection System.
"These days Argentina is going to be
one of the hottest spots on the continent.
Last year the country's electrical system demonstrated that it has certain weaknesses that suggest that this week
localized power outages could be repeated in various parts of the system
," he explains. Jorge Lapeña, former Secretary of Energy of the Nation.
The heat wave continues in the City and the risk of power outages increases.
Photo: Emmanuel Fernández.
Lapeña, who is president of the General Mosconi Argentine Energy Institute, presumes it but clarifies that "we will only know when we get through the week and draw conclusions."
What is certain is that "our electrical generation system, extra high voltage transportation, which is the backbone of the electrical system, and the distribution networks, especially in the AMBA,
tend to present significant failures on days high temperature
."
Heat, synonymous with cuts
It is not
silver pessimism
that the feeling that "the power will surely go out" is so deep-rooted, at least in the City and the GBA, when it is so hot.
It's experience.
"Our energy generation system is
obsolete
. In 2023 it was shown that a large part of the thermoelectric equipment was
unavailable
, for various reasons, such as lack of fuel, maintenance, or permanent breakdowns. This was not corrected in this Government and gives a
great weakness
in the system. We will see how it responds," diagnoses Lapeña.
As stated above, another failure, "the main one", according to those consulted, occurs in the
retail distribution of energy,
especially in the AMBA.
Julián Gadano, former Undersecretary of Nuclear Energy of the Nation,
details it to
Clarín .
"The problem with the Argentine electrical system is that it is
very stretched,
it has no reserve. It is made up of three parts: energy generation, its transportation and its retail distribution. In generation, it does not have much reserve, but I imagine that, as long as When no generator fails (like the Comahue plant), the problem would not happen there. On the other hand, it does happen in transportation, which is less than fair," Gadano begins.
"THE SADI (where consumer demand falls) is a system that works in condition
'N'
, that is, under normal conditions - he warns -.
You end up having just one problem and the system collapses
."
So why would everything be worse in retail energy distribution?
"The rates have been down for a long time, there is
little investment,
because it is not profitable, unlike what people think,
retail distribution is not subsidized
(generation is), and
it does not receive direct money from the State.
So when retail distribution networks are in high demand (like now, with massive air conditioning) the problem begins," he says.
From the National Electricity Regulatory Entity (ENRE), they told Clarín that by decision of its controller, Darío Arrué, work began on a series of "very important resolutions, in regulatory terms, for the electrical service."
They added that they will soon begin with an "improvement in the power factor at the consumption points, through the installation of capacitor banks."
In addition, they explained that the measure will be applied to the Edenor and Edesur concession area, "which is where we have competition."
The organization argued that they will be "medium and long-term" solutions, which will involve "the recovery of capacity in lines, cables and transformers, and a lower rate of outages due to cable and transformer breakdowns," among other solutions.
For Gadano, meanwhile, there are some certainties to anticipate.
"Focusing on the AMBA, with all the air on,
it will be worse for Edesur than for Edenor, because Edesur has a poorer quality network,
due to a historical lack of investment.
With this panorama, a single aspect could save us from cuts in the City.
" A new vacation period
begins
, there are fewer people in the AMBA. Many offices are not working. That the population is a little more distributed in other cities in the country, can help prevent there from being cuts. But it is a set of uncertainties" , close.
S.C.