This is a dark scenario drawn by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).
Some 35 million new cases of cancer are expected to be detected in 2050, or 77% more than in 2022, the WHO agency specializing in this disease said on Thursday.
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“The rapid increase in the global burden of cancer reflects both population aging and growth, as well as changes in people's exposure to risk factors,” the agency said.
Tobacco, alcohol, obesity and air pollution are “key factors in increasing incidence”.
According to data from 185 countries, the IARC anticipates an increase of 50% in the annual number of new cases diagnosed between 2022 and 2040 (around 30 million), and of 77% between 2022 and 2050 (35 million anticipated).
On average, one in five people will develop cancer during their lifetime, anticipates Doctor Freddie Bray, head of the IARC cancer surveillance unit.
In 2022, a large study published in The Lancet revealed that almost half of global cancers are attributable to a given risk factor.
Tobacco is by far the main element causing cancer (33.9%), followed by alcohol (7.4%).
However, more than half of cancers are not attributable to a given risk factor, which shows that prevention is not enough.
This, according to the authors, must therefore be accompanied by two other pillars: sufficiently early diagnosis and effective treatments.
Strong geographical disparities
The IARC estimates the number of cancers diagnosed worldwide at 19.96 million in 2022. Asia concentrates almost half of the cases detected in 2022 according to the IARC (9.8 million), a logical figure if we consider considers that more than half of the world's population lives in this region.
Less logical in view of the demographic weight, Europe (in the broad sense, Russia included) alone concentrates almost a quarter of diagnoses (4.5 million).
This trait is explained by “record incidence rates for widespread cancers such as prostate and breast in many European countries,” explains Dr. Bray.
Cancer mainly affects the elderly: three quarters of diagnoses concern those over 55.
The number of deaths from cancer has been estimated at 9.74 million for the year 2022 by the IARC.
Cancer kills more men than women: out of 100 deaths, on average 56 are men for 44 women.
Main explanation: lung cancer kills the most with 1.8 million deaths in 2022 and it is men, historically the heaviest smokers, who are the first to be affected.