In this
extreme and extensive heat wave
that
crushes
much of Argentina, meteorology already sees rain on its radars.
But those storms, isolated, will not bring sustained relief from the very high temperatures, which
will peak next week
.
Several days later, however, in the City and the GBA perhaps nostalgia reigns for the now hated heat.
It won't be long before people from Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires will notice that it's February.
The
classic and short summer month
that is characterized by being rainy and that, for the moment, is giving surprises.
Meanwhile, until Saturday, the minimum temperatures will be between 24 and 26°C and the maximum temperatures could reach 38°C.
"This quite persistent heat wave, which began in Patagonia last week, is going to cover a large part of the country, due to the atmospheric blocking system in the South Atlantic (which does not allow cold air to pass into this area)."
meteorologist José Luis Stella, from the National Meteorological Service (SMN),
tells
Clarín .
"
It took us by surprise
," he admits. "It is not what is expected under the influence of a strong summer phenomenon like El Niño."
In this region, at the country level,
February is a rainy month
.
In the metropolitan area (where it can rain more in November and March) the monthly average rainfall is
130 mm
, and the average minimum temperature is 19°C, the minimum and the maximum, 29°C.
But meteorological phenomena are not limited to El Niño or La Niña.
As a mark, other
atmospheric forcings
that produce this blockage, "very slowly moving", will lengthen your stay in this oppressive heat.
"
A
priori
in the City and the GBA there will be a very temporary relief between Saturday and Sunday.
There will be a drop in temperature on Sunday
, we will be between 20° and 31°, due to the passage of a weak cold front and there is a low probability that any precipitation could occur," continues Stella.
If it happens, if these
isolated storms
actually wet the paths that Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires residents tread, they will not keep the stocks on the rise of the thermometer for long.
"On Monday the temperature will increase again because practically (with these rains) the mass of this warm and humid air does not change.
The temperature is going to skyrocket again
, with the thresholds that define that
it will be a heat wave, and that "It would persist until Thursday of next week
," says the expert.
The low probability of rain does not alter a heat wave that was surprising when it arrived but has a
typical behavior
.
With a very slow movement, it goes from the south to the north of the country.
"In these hot days, storms were forming in the center and the Cordillera area. They will continue to form
every day in the afternoon
near the AMBA and in the rest of the provinces. They are very short and temporary, not They don't even reach 2 mm. In fact, the day before yesterday (Tuesday) it rained in La Plata. For now, the probability of intense rain reaching the City and Greater Buenos Aires is very low," adds Cindy Fernández. , from the SMN.
Everything changes on Thursday
"According to the complete coincidence of the (analysis) models, on Thursday, when this blocking anti-cyclone withdraws, it does give way to the entry of a low pressure system, a
cold front
. The rotation of the wind to the south is going to cause the temperature to begin to drop and, of course, there will be precipitation, starting on Thursday or Friday," says Stella.
Much of the country - and particularly the AMBA area - will experience the transition from being in an unbearable heat wave to experiencing "more typical February temperatures":
below 30°C.
The key is that the drop in heat, even if it is at normal minimums for the month,
"will feel very strong compared to this heat wave
. "
Starting next Friday, February will also be February again in terms of rain.
"The rainfall pattern is going to be more similar to what a normal summer is, with the El Niño phenomenon already occurring," Stella concludes.
But for that we will have to wait a week.