As of: February 2, 2024, 5:27 p.m
By: Marco Blanco Ucles
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Alarming figures: According to the Federal Statistical Office, by 2049 – in 25 years – there will probably be a shortage of between 280,000 and 690,000 nursing staff.
With the increasing life expectancy of the German population, which has recently fallen but will increase again in the future, the number of nursing staff required is of course also increasing.
The Federal Statistical Office has now examined the issue in more detail - and provided worrying details.
In a press release, the authority announced that between 280,000 and 690,000 new nursing staff - health and nursing assistance, health and nursing care, geriatric care and geriatric care assistance - are expected to be needed by 2049.
A third more nursing staff will be needed in 2049 than in 2019
Based on a new forecast of the nursing labor market, the Federal Statistical Office has found that the need for employed nursing staff will increase to 2.15 million.
For comparison: in the last year before the corona pandemic - 2019 - the demand was still 1.62 million.
That means an increase of around a third – within 30 years.
Nurses are essential for the infrastructure.
However, there could be huge shortages in this profession in the future.
© Westend61/IMAGO
Two different variants were used in the calculation.
On the one hand, there is the “trend variant”, which takes into account the recent positive development on the nursing labor market.
But even in this variant, there will be a whopping 280,000 nursing care shortage in 2049, and by 2034 there would be a shortage of 90,000 skilled workers.
Almost a fifth more nursing staff would be needed in 2049 than in 2019 to meet demand.
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The second variant is the “status quo variant”.
It only shows the effects of demographic developments on the future number of nursing staff and does not take into account past trends on the nursing labor market.
The number of nursing staff would therefore fall from 1.62 million in 2019 to 1.48 million in 2034 and 1.46 million in 2049.
The reason: “The main driver of this development is the baby boomer generation increasingly reaching retirement age in the next ten years, which will mean that the labor market will lack the nursing staff it needs for reasons of age alone.”
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If this unfavorable case actually occurs, there would be a shortage of 350,000 nursing staff as early as 2034 - i.e. in ten years.
By 2049 there would be a shortage of 690,000 skilled workers in nursing – an absolute horror scenario.
Bernd Meurer, President of the Federal Association of Private Providers of Social Services, sees it the same way.
He told the
dpa
that he had clear words in the direction of Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD), who launched a nursing reform last year: “Minister Lauterbach is watching idly as the situation continues to get worse: more and more nursing staff are going to the hospital will retire in the next few years and the number of trainees will collapse.”