A GDP of 0.8% for 2024 and 1.1% for 2025. This is the forecast provided by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBU) in the February economic note, which updates the macroeconomic forecasts for the period 2023-25.
The forecasts have worsened slightly compared to those formulated in October (+1.1 for this year) due to the validation of the Nadef macroeconomic framework, specifies the PBO, explaining that "the revisions are mainly attributable to the deterioration of the international context" and "the macroeconomic framework is therefore subject to various risks, overall oriented towards the downside".
"The prospects of the Italian economy are exposed to multiple risks, which are overall unfavourable", states the Parliamentary Budget Office (PUB), explaining that "the sources of uncertainty are mainly of an exogenous nature as they come from international factors, in particular geo-political (war in Ukraine and the Middle East), which could slow down global trade".
"The robust recovery of international trade for 2024 is, however - he adds - essential to materialize the acceleration of Italian GDP in the two-year forecast period".
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