What climate objective for the Twenty-Seven in 2040?
Brussels unveils, this Tuesday, its roadmap to continue to decarbonize in all directions, while the agricultural crisis illustrates the growing tensions in the face of environmental standards, four months before the European elections.
The EU has already set itself the objective of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990, to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. As an intermediate target, the European Commission should recommend aiming for a net reduction of 90% in 2040, according to working documents, i.e. continuing the same rate of reduction as over the 2020-2030 period, offering a predictable horizon to investors.
The 2040 projections should be based in part on the capture and storage of large volumes of carbon - to the great dismay of NGOs criticizing these "unproven" technologies and demanding crude emissions reduction targets.
However, the effort will remain considerable and should affect all sectors, from electricity to the steel industry, even agriculture (11% of European emissions).
Concern around the Green Deal
But Brussels must overcome concerns about the socio-economic impact of forced greening: its “Green Deal” has become a scarecrow for public opinion.
After successes in transport, energy and industry, this vast set of environmental legislation collapsed on agricultural issues in the face of bitter opposition from right-wing MEPs and farmers, while leaders demanded “ a regulatory break” to relieve businesses and households.
11 states, including France, Germany and Spain, have certainly asked Brussels for “an ambitious climate objective”, in a joint letter consulted by AFP.
But the signatories also called for a “just and equitable” transition, “economically feasible, with manageable costs, leaving no one behind, particularly the most vulnerable”, strengthening “energy security and industrial competitiveness”…
As the June election approaches, where a rise of the far right and nationalists is expected, the debate on environmental standards - at the heart of recent agricultural demonstrations - is proving politically explosive.
The European executive was required to update its post-2030 projections within six months following COP28 in December: but, due to the pre-electoral context, Brussels will only reveal a simple “communication” on Tuesday.
The next Commission, which will result from the June vote, will be responsible for submitting a formal legislative proposal to the States and to the renewed European Parliament.
What effect will the elections have?
“Obviously, if we don't continue, we won't reach the final goal.
If the political conditions are not met, it will not happen: one issue in the election is the pursuit of the
Green Deal
.
Releasing the 2040 objective now requires everyone to take a position,” he warns.
In its sights, the EPP (right), the first force in Parliament which has become resistant to the Green Deal, while the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Commissioner Hoekstra belong to the same camp.
Read alsoAgricultural crisis: the Écophyto plan “shut down”, a “historic setback” for environmental associations
“With its implementation, we are increasingly seeing how ambitious the 2030 climate goal is.
It’s easy to set a figure, more difficult to really ensure that the transition takes place in industry, among citizens,” replies EPP MEP Peter Liese.
Rapporteur of a reform of the carbon market before attacking the “restoration of nature” law, he considers a target of -90% “very ambitious” and calls for “the right political framework”, including reduced constraints for industrialists.
This Tuesday, the President of the European Commission proposed the withdrawal of a legislative project aimed at halving the use of pesticides in the European Union.