The trailer for the movie "The Day After Tomorrow"/Twentieth Century Fox
In the 2004 Hollywood film The Day After Tomorrow, humanity is caught up in a series of nightmarish blizzards and hurricanes that bring Earth into a new ice age.
Those who have seen the film know that its definition as a fictional thriller is questionable, since it is a possible apocalyptic scenario.
Now there are those who claim that this is not only a possible scenario but a prediction that is expected to happen to us within a few years and possibly even next year.
According to the experts' forecast, the melting glaciers may disable the Gulf Stream - the current system that brings warmth to the Northern Hemisphere.
Without this additional heat source, average temperatures could drop by several degrees in North America, parts of Asia and Europe - and people would witness "serious and divisive consequences around the world".
The reports made headlines around the world: "Deeply concerned: Gulf Stream collapse could spark global chaos by 2025," declared the New York Post, with CNN adding: "A crucial system of ocean currents is poised for a collapse that will affect every person on Earth." ".
It was a study conducted by climate experts from Utrecht University in the Netherlands that brought the danger to the headlines, after they warned that a sudden collapse of the Atlantic ocean currents looks more likely than ever, as computer simulations find a "cliff-like" tipping point approaching in the foreseeable future. The authors of the study did not We know exactly when the collapse in question will occur, although previous research has determined that it will happen as early as next year.
"We're getting close to a collapse, but we're not sure how close we are," said lead author René Van Westen, a climate scientist and oceanographer at Utrecht University, "We're heading toward a tipping point. When could a global weather disaster like the one in the day after tomorrow occur '? That's the million dollar question. Unfortunately, we can't answer it right now. It also depends on the rate of climate change that we humans are causing."
The Gulf Stream is part of a much wider system of currents, called the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation).
It is described as an "ocean conveyor belt" that transports warm water near the surface of the ocean northward - from the tropics to the northern hemisphere.
When the warm water reaches the North Atlantic (around Europe and Great Britain, and the east coast of the USA), it releases its heat and freezes. When this ice forms, salt is left behind in the ocean water. Due to the large amount of salt in the water, it becomes denser, sinks and is carried south at depths below. Eventually, the water is drawn back up toward the surface and warmed in a process called "swelling," which completes the cycle.
Scientists think the AMOC brings enough heat to the Northern Hemisphere that without it, large parts of Europe could go into deep freeze. Research Previous studies have already shown that due to climate change, the AMOC is slowing down. The engine of this conveyor belt is off the coast of Greenland, where, as more ice melts from climate change, more fresh water flows into the North Atlantic and slows everything down.
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A catastrophe that could cause food and water shortages around the world
The new study, published in the journal Science Advances, predicts that a sudden collapse of the AMOC may occur in the coming decades and not in the next hundreds of years as previously thought.
The researchers designed a computer simulation in which they were able to measure a sudden weakening of the ocean circulation.
The simulation introduced fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean, and as a result, the strength of the circulation gradually decreased until it reached a critical 'tipping point' and collapsed.
According to the results, the European climate will cool by about 1°C per decade, and in some areas will even experience a cooling of over 3°C per decade - much faster than today's global warming of about 0.2°C per decade.
Besides plunging temperatures, this scenario will expand Arctic ice farther south, increase heat in the Southern Hemisphere, change global rainfall patterns, and disrupt the Amazon rainforest.
Other scientists say it would be a catastrophe that could cause food and water shortages around the world.
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We found that once it reaches the tipping point, the conveyor shuts down within 100 years," the authors said, "the transport of heat towards the north is greatly reduced, leading to sudden climate changes."
The only thing they haven't been able to identify is when exactly that tipping point will be reached, although it is at least decades away if not longer.
"The study makes a compelling case that the AMOC is approaching a tipping point based on a strong, physically based early warning indicator," said Tim Lenton, Hadef Chair for Climate Change Research at the University of Exeter, who was not involved in the study. "What it cannot and does not say is how much The tipping point is near, because it shows that there is not enough data to make a statistically reliable assessment of this."
Is there any reason to panic?
The fact that there is not enough data to determine such a disaster has caused many experts to oppose the claim that the Gulf Stream will collapse in 2025.
An expert claimed in TheConversation that the study was just meant to make headlines and scare the public.
He wrote: "It is well known that climate anxiety is fueled by media reports of the impending climate crisis. This causes many to simply shut down and give up - believing that we are all doomed and that there is nothing anyone can do about it. However, this is an outrageous claim at best and a completely irresponsible statement at worst." the bad".
He added that according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change "it is very likely that the Atlantic Ocean Overturning Cycle (MOC) will slow during the 21st century, but it is very unlikely that it will undergo a sudden drastic reversal during the 21st century".
The Sixth Assessment Report went further and concluded that: "There is no observational evidence for this trend in the Atlantic meridional overturning cycle (AMOC), based on a decadal record of the full AMOC and longer records of individual AMOC components."
More on the same topic:
global warming
stagnation