The counteroffensive, sanctions on Russia, Europe's independence from Russian gas, Western aid to Kiev and its path towards the EU: two years after the start of the war in Ukraine, a study by the Institute for international political studies (Ispi) tries to take stock of the situation by highlighting numerous fixed points but also other elements that make it difficult to outline a well-defined picture.
Starting with the counteroffensive launched by Ukraine last summer.
Kiev has never clearly stated its objectives, but there is a general belief that it was in fact a failure because if the aim was to liberate the occupied territories, this did not happen.
According to some calculations, ISPI highlights, in 2023 both Moscow and Kiev would have taken around 0.08-0.09% of disputed territory from the enemy, and in fact a stalemate situation has therefore been created.
But at the same time, Ukrainian forces have achieved significant results in the battle of the Black Sea. ISPI explicitly speaks of "victories", recalling in particular that on September 22nd a Ukrainian missile attack on Sevastopol damaged several boats and destroyed the headquarters of the Russian Fleet, so much so that, in recent months, most Russian warships have been repositioned further east.
As regards sanctions on Moscow, the study highlights that assessments on this topic differ greatly.
With 16,587 measures, Russia is the most sanctioned country in the world, but this is not enough to jam its war machine.
Furthermore, according to the International Monetary Fund, after closing 2023 with growth of 3%, this year Russian GDP should record a further increase of 2.6%.
However, these are data distorted by the fact that Moscow is increasingly militarizing its economy, concentrating much of its workforce on the arms industry, which has led to a general increase in wages, with inflation returning to go out.
In 2024, the Russian government also plans to invest about a third of the total budget in defense, and this is certainly not an indication of long-term sustainable growth.
The question of Europe's liberation from Russian energy fits into this framework.
EU imports of Russian natural gas have collapsed, but between mid-2023 and the first weeks of 2024, ISPI writes, there has been a slow but steady increase in Russian supplies to the European Union via pipeline or by sea with LNG.
At the same time, Western aid to Kiev has decreased.
After weeks of impasse, the EU has recently managed to approve a 50 billion euro aid package, which however will be disbursed over the next four years.
At the same time, in the United States the Senate has approved aid for 60 billion dollars, but the measure is still blocked in the House and it is increasingly probable, ISPI notes, that it could be the last tranche of aid, especially in the event of Donald Trump's election in November.
It is also difficult to make predictions regarding Kiev's accession to the EU.
The process has been started, but it could take a long time.
In particular with regards to the reforms of the Ukrainian economy to be implemented, especially in light of the fact that, according to the World Bank, approximately 440 billion euros will be needed to reconstruct the country.
Then there are the security aspects, already highlighted by the fact that at the moment it is difficult to outline the borders of Ukraine, and in any case it is not clear how dangerous extending the EU territory up to the border with Russia could be, since, concludes the ISPI , if Ukraine became a member of the Union but not of NATO, Brussels would risk not being able to guarantee sufficient security even for itself.
For further information ISPI Ukraine: two years after the invasion |
ISPI Two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we try to clarify the progress and prospects of the conflict.
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