Russia is the most active actor in hybrid campaigns "to the detriment of Italy and the entire West".
Espionage, cyber attacks, disinformation, destabilizing exploitation of migratory flows: this is the arsenal used, according to the annual intelligence report presented today in the presence of the delegated Authority for the security of the Republic, Alfredo Mantovano, of the president of Copasir Lorenzo Guerini and the service directors, Elisabetta Belloni (Dis), Giovanni Caravelli (Aise) and Mario Parente (Aisi).
Moscow has also tried to hinder Italian and European initiatives for energy diversification and the introduction of the price cap on Russian gas with propaganda "aimed at polluting information for the general public about the trend in energy prices".
Intelligence attention now on the upcoming events that will catalyze disinformation campaigns: the European elections in June, the Italian presidency of the G7, the exit from the Silk Road.
Regarding the progress of the conflict, the report notes, Western countries' support for Ukraine, fundamental for the continuation of Kiev's military effort, continued throughout 2023, despite recording a significant decline compared to the previous year.
At the end of the year, the total military aid allocated by European countries exceeded, for the first time, that offered by the USA.
On the other hand, the support that third-party actors offer to the Russian military industrial base is increasing.
China has probably provided Moscow with some dual technologies, while .
other countries have instead offered direct military support: Iran drones, North Korea munitions
"Italy has confirmed itself as a potential target due to its centrality in the Christian world, its commitment to the anti-Daesh Coalition and the presence of symbolic places of Western history such as the Colosseum which continues to be considered, by the rhetoric of the area, an objective of privileged conquest in the heart of 'unbelieving' Europe", the report continues.
For example, after the burning of a copy of the Koran in Stockholm last June 28, pro-Daesh media centers released a poster showing the image of a mujahideen with a distorted face, behind whom the Colosseum was depicted with the Swedish flag and the Arabic hashtag "burn copies of the Koran and bomb mosques".
The intelligence has maintained a high level of information attention on foreign fighters who have reached theaters of war at the time.
In 2023, those connected in various capacities with Italy increased to 149 (of which 39 returned).
Furthermore, 77 individuals potentially dangerous to national security were expelled, including 42 Tunisians.
A curiosity: among the returnees there is also an Australian right-wing extremist.
The Israeli-Palestinian war also triggered a "revitalization of jihadist propaganda, not only in an anti-Zionist perspective, but also aimed at relaunching the clash between Islam and the West, with the aim of projecting the threat beyond the borders of the theater of conflict".
There is therefore a "real" risk that the crisis could constitute "a sounding board for the jihadist message, not only impacting on radicalization processes, but also being able to act as a trigger for potential lone wolves stationed in Europe, inducing them to move to action".
In this context, the antagonist movement is active in promoting marches and demonstrations, but also propaganda and counter-information initiatives in an 'anti-Zionist' key, in the broader framework of the campaign called "Boycott, Divest, Sanction" (BDS), aimed at orienting public opinion towards forms of pressure against Israel.
The different international crisis scenarios, we read in the report, have also influenced the heterogeneous antagonistic world which, starting from the theme of war, has re-proposed strategies of convergence of themes and requests, in a renewed attempt to broaden and compact the front of the dissent.
The activists therefore tried to close ranks by pivoting, both at a propaganda and street level.
At the same time, the far right area "has continued to engage in the attempt to increase visibility and following for the more structured groups, also with a view to political accreditation in view of future local elections".
"The issues most in focus - the 007s point out - were the increase in energy costs, the high cost of living and, more particularly, the positions of the Executive on foreign crisis theaters considered, by the sector narrative, to be an expression of the interests of the NATO, the EU and 'US imperialism'".
In line with these invectives, intelligence has detected "significant activism in various European countries aimed at increasing relations with ultranationalist groups of the Old Continent, with the aim of putting together an 'international political front' with a clear anti-Atlantist imprint and pro-Russian".
In terms of proselytism strategies, the far right then showed a renewed interest in some organized, politically oriented supporters and student militancy environments.
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