Heat records in Morocco or Greece, temperatures often like spring in France.
The planet had a heatwave in February with four days in a row above the 2°C mark of warming since the industrial era, the highest limit of the Paris agreement.
When it comes to the Paris agreement, we talk about 20-year averages.
In November, it was the first time that we exceeded the threshold of 2°C on a single day.
Now it's a long streak of days in a row.
And this should become widespread.
The climate system is warming, which means that temperature extremes will be exceeded more often on a daily, monthly and annual scale.
And already, the last 12 months have exceeded 1.5°C over a year for the first time (the lower limit of the Paris agreement, editor's note).
The feeling of a “rotten winter” in France
In France, rain replaced snow.
The winter of 2023-2024 is already the 3rd warmest ever measured in France.
The month of February ended with excessively mild temperatures.
Between the beginning of December and the end of February, traditionally the coldest period of the year, the mercury should exceed "by around 2 degrees" the normals for the period 1991-2020, behind the winters of 2020 (+2.3°C) and 2016 (+2.1°C), Météo France announced this Thursday.
This is the sixth consecutive year that temperatures over the three winter months are higher than the averages of the last three decades, by at least 0.8°C.
We have to go back to the winter of 2017-2018 (+0.1°C) to find temperatures close to seasonal norms, adds Météo France.
These observations are all the more notable since the normals are, in meteorology, calculated from the temperatures of the previous three decades, themselves already warmer than the climate of the pre-industrial era.
In France, the climate is considered to already be at least 1.7°C warmer than before the impact of humanity's massive greenhouse gas emissions.
Obviously everyone has a different perception.
In certain parts of the country, particularly in the north, the impression of a “rotten winter” dominates many minds with a marked lack of sunshine and sequences of marked and persistent rains in certain regions.
Over the entire winter, France recorded an excess of rain of around 10% on average.
But in certain regions, such as the Pyrénées Orientales and the entire Languedoc-Roussillon region, the deficit in terms of precipitation still remains a concern.
Peaks of mildness were reached with average temperatures more than 6°C above normal.
The 25°C mark (heat threshold) was crossed on Thursday January 25, in the Pyrénées-Orientales and in Hérault.
While waiting for La Niña…
On a global scale too, the thermometer also continues to break records: January was the 8th month in a row to be the hottest ever recorded in the world, according to the observatory European Copernicus.
Several factors explain this phenomenon: El Niño, the peak of the solar cycle but also greenhouse gases which despite initiatives and speeches continue to increase.
However, these temperature records recorded on the planet for 9 months could begin to decrease, according to this observatory.
“A potential rapid return of the La Niña climate phenomenon “could reduce the risk” that 2024 beats the absolute heat record of 2023,” explained the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
“When you look at past episodes, the peak of global temperatures has always come after the peak of El Niño.
Pacific Ocean temperatures are dropping and we are expecting a possible transition to La Niña this summer, with some signs suggesting a faster transition than expected.
2024 was on track to be very hot again or even a record year, but this risk could actually decrease,” specifies the observatory.
In the meantime, the consequences are now visible.
According to the European Copernicus network, over the period from February 11 to 20, 21.6% of Europe and northern Maghreb is in a drought situation, with 17.3% of soils experiencing a moisture deficit, and 2.5% of vegetation develops abnormally, a warning sign of an even more advanced state of drought.