The drastic drop in poppy cultivation in Afghanistan opens a gap for fentanyl in Europe

Afghan soldiers destroy a poppy field in the Afghan province of Nangarhar.GHULAMULLAH HABIBI (efe)

The poppy is one of the bases of the economy in Afghanistan.

The ban on its cultivation by the Taliban, who regained power in 2021, has led to a drastic drop in hectares dedicated to its cultivation, from 233,000 to 10,800.

The latest report from the European Drug Monitoring Center warns of the risk that a possible lack of global supply will be replaced with “more harmful synthetic opiates, such as fentanyl derivatives or nitazenes.”

Afghanistan produces 80% of the world's opium, according to the observatory.

“We have no indication that there are synthetic opiates in Spain, but we are all hysterically watching,” says the Government delegate for the National Plan on Drugs, Joan Villalbí.

The European report has also reached his table, which they have analyzed in detail.

“The Taliban announced that they would ban opium cultivation.

We didn't know if it would be for real or for the gallery.

Now we have the first warnings that it could be happening,” says Villalbí.

The document also points out another risk derived from the lack of drugs: an increase in “polysubstances” among heroin users.

“It is a window of opportunity,” admits the chief investigative commissioner of the Mossos d'Esquadra, Ramon Chacón.

“They call it chaos theory:

If poppies are not grown in Kabul, thousands of people will die in Europe,” he says, about the consequences that a hypothetical shortage of heroin would have in European markets, with consumers receiving more dangerous alternatives.

But he insists that the data so far refute that this scenario is immediately looming over Spain.

“Of the 45,000 annual analyzes (15,000 criminal and 30,000 administrative) that we do, no fentanyl has ever been found,” he reveals.

In the last six years, the police have seized 379 grams of this substance, according to data from the Intelligence Center against Terrorism and Organized Crime (CITCO).

And the majority (291 grams) correspond to a single action, from 2018, in the port of Ceuta, where a person of foreign origin was seized.

Experts also remember that the journey of heroin derived from opium produced in Afghanistan to Europe is long.

“The drugs take a long time to arrive,” says Commissioner Chacón, which means that this feared shortage has not yet occurred.

A vision shared by the state director of Energy Control, Claudio Vidal, specialized in drug analysis: “You can still live for a while on the stock, the storage.”

Vidal adds that so far they have not found traces of the dreaded synthetic opiates either in their task of analyzing what is consumed both recreationally and in venipuncture rooms.

“No one has provided solid data to confirm the presence” of fentanyl or other derivatives in Spain.

Before the actual discovery of the drugs, other elements would allow progress.

“The price of heroin and its purity would be prior indicators,” says Chacón.

Given the shortage of heroin, the cost per gram would increase, and its quality would decrease, it would be more cut.

In August last year, an alert was issued from Barcelona's Sala Baluard, the largest supervised consumption room in Spain, that more adulterated heroin was being sold.

“At some points, samples with zero heroin were found,” says the delegate of the National Drug Plan.

But soon after, the situation returned to normal, with samples at 5% or 6% purity.

Police sources fighting against drugs in La Mina, a traditional point of sale in Barcelona, ​​have not detected any shortages either.

“We don't stop making heroin seizures,” they say, and insist that they have never found fentanyl or similar derivatives.

Villalbí, however, does not ignore the real risk that the production of synthetic opiates, if Afghanistan does not grow opium poppies, will be carried out on “the heroin route.”

“In any of the surrounding countries,” he warns, about a product that requires other chemical elements that are mostly produced in China.

Commissioner Chacón objects that the manufacturing process of synthetic opiates is complicated, and must be very measured so as not to directly kill the consumer.

“It is not so easy to have the knowledge.

It is organic chemistry, molecularly it is difficult,” he indicates.

In his opinion, it would be more plausible for other countries close to Afghanistan, such as India or Kazakhstan, to take over the much simpler field of poppy cultivation.

Last year, Myanmar already surpassed Afghanistan's cultivated hectares, according to the report by the European Drug Monitoring Centre.

The police expert points out other elements that complicate the arrival of these drugs.

The first, the little interest of powerful criminal organizations based in Spain, which are dedicated to other drugs, such as hashish, or marijuana, both in “expansive cycles.”

“They don't have the need” because they already make great profits.

The commissioner adds the “rumor” that comes to the police from time to time: the possibility that cocaine is cut with fentanyl.

The market, he indicates, is in a process of “global fragmentation”, with more outsourced production processes, but there is also more cocaine than ever, due to the increase in hectares of cultivation in Peru and Colombia.

“There is no point in cutting it with fentanyl.

And we would find it in the analyses,” he explains.

“Cocaine has purity rates unknown to date,” agrees Vidal, which is what his analysis found.

Extreme growing conditions

Another thing, the Mossos commissioner points out, is that the Mexican cartels, which supply the United States, decided to cover a possible demand in Europe.

But he contrasts another element that, in his opinion, can end the threat: How long will the Taliban hold the veto?

“Afghanistan no longer has aid from the IMF or the World Bank,” he analyzes.

In addition, the country is also suffering from drought.

“The hectares of fruit tree crops are decreasing more and more because it is not profitable,” he adds.

The opium poppy, on the other hand, can withstand more extreme conditions for its cultivation.

The ban has had a devastating effect on the country's economy, with a loss of more than $1 billion [€920 million] for farmers, according to the US Institute of Peace, an independent agency.

And if everything fails, and synthetic opiates finally enter the European market, those involved in the anti-drug fight assure that detection would be immediate.

“You would know right away because the main risk they have is overdoses,” recalls Claudio Vidal, from Energy Control.

And overdoses that in many cases lead to death.

“We look at it very carefully,” insists Villalbí, from the National Drug Plan, regarding the monitoring of all the indicators that would reveal the arrival of the dreaded fentanyl, which causes havoc in the United States.

In this scenario, Chacón considers that nitazenes, which have already been found before in Europe, have “more numbers” of settling than fentanyl.

The Health agencies of the United Kingdom, France and Ireland have issued recent but specific alerts of overdoses due to this type of synthetic derivative, with devastating consequences for health.

In any case, Chacón warns, if synthetic opiates reach Europe, “it will be a global phenomenon.”

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