How much will IV and Azione's decision to side with Bardi weigh on the outcome of the Regionals in Basilicata?
Not only the parties in the running but also the pollsters are wondering this, but they underline the difficulty of making a prediction, given the peculiarities of the Region.
"There isn't much on paper as a point of comparison - observes Lorenzo Pregliasco, director of Youtrend - but we can start from the September 2022 policies to understand the potential".
Well, on that occasion, the two parties of Calenda and Renzi, then allies in the Third Pole, obtained a better performance than the national one where they stopped at 7.78%;
in Basilicata they scored 9.76% in the Chamber and 12.27 in the Senate, driven by the candidacy of the former governor Marcello Pittella, now in Action.
In the September 2022 elections, the center-right was chosen by 38.31% of voters, the M5s by 25.00% and the center-left by 21.59%.
Therefore, if those results were to be mechanically replicated, the M5s-Pd coalition would have more votes than the centre-right, which however in turn would overtake the former thanks to the support of Action and IV.
"To be ascribed to that result - observes Pregliasco - there is not only the political vote of opinion, but also territorial elements and personal preference for Pittella".
And in this sense Lorenzo De Sio, director of Cise-Luis (Italian Center for Electoral Studies), points out the differences: "Aside from the fact that a year and a half has passed, in the regional elections there is an asymmetrical abstentionism compared to the politics. The outcome is unpredictable."
"It's premature to make predictions at the very least," agrees Pregliasco.
If we go back to the previous regional elections in 2019, the most important fact was that for the first time the center-right won the regional elections.
The centre-right led by Bardi obtained 42.20%, thanks to an exploit by the League which took 19.15%, while five years earlier it had not even presented itself.
Conversely, the center-left received only 33.11% of the votes compared to 62.7% in November 2013. The collapse was partly due to the legal affairs of the former president Marcello Pittella and partly to the rise of M5s, which obtained the confidence of 20.32% of voters.
Compared to the Regional ones it is difficult to measure both IV and Action, given that both parties had not been founded.
However, former governor Marcello Pittella, former Pd, has been active with Action since August 2022.
At the regional elections in November 2013, in which the coalition won by a landslide with 62.7%, its civic list was chosen by 16%.
And today?
"It could work for Renzi - observes De Sio - because he has been saying for some time that he is close to the right. For Calenda there is a risk: after having said "never with the sovereignist right" he now takes that side, with the risk of losing the opinion vote both in Basilicata and then at the European elections; provided that it does not have strong candidates in terms of preferences".
"Action in the regional elections - recalls Pregliasco - has always won less than in the political elections, however the weight in the next regional elections will also depend on the candidates for the Council, given that the preferential vote is very important. In any case, the choice of Action and Iv siding with Bardi shifts some points. Partly due to Pittella's roots, but at least a couple of points shift them easily."
There is also another unknown: the possible autonomous candidacy of Chiorazzo, who draws on the moderate-reformist electorate: another reason that pushes Pregliasco to define every prediction as "premature".
Reproduction reserved © Copyright ANSA