In Brussels, after last month's European War Council, there is a reply at NATO headquarters with a Foreign Ministerial that looks to the future and puts on the table a radical transformation of the management of the conflict. Because support for Ukraine must be "predictable" and articulated "over the long term". Enough therefore with short-term "voluntary contributions" and make way for an "institutionalisation" of the war effort within NATO.
The change of pace coincides with the dramatic appeals that are increasingly coming from Kiev. Some senior officers, for example, maintain that the holding of the front is now "at risk" and that Moscow could soon "break through" in certain sectors.
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg therefore encouraged the allies to do more and, above all, to accept a qualitative change from an administrative (so to speak) point of view. That is, by placing the Ramstein format hitherto led by the US under NATO command, given that "99% of military supplies to Ukraine" are ensured by the allies. Not only.
Since Kiev needs "fresh resources" and quickly, the secretary general confirmed that he has proposed the creation of a billion-dollar assistance fund to be developed over the next five years. Stoltenberg did not want to provide figures but several diplomatic sources - as anticipated by ANSA - confirmed that we are talking about around 100 billion euros based on contributions proportional to the GDP of each country. "Moscow must understand that it cannot achieve its goals on the battlefield and so accept a negotiation that recognizes Ukraine as a sovereign and independent nation," Stoltenberg explained.
The negotiations are only at the beginning and the time horizon for arriving at practical decisions is that of the Washington summit, scheduled for July. The formula with which to calculate the contributions of each ally to the military assistance fund could be that of the NATO budget - for Italy it would therefore be 8.7%, or 8.7 billion euros - but other options are not excluded , as a flat percentage of GDP (the NATO budget is in fact different from defense spending, Germany for example contributes 16%, with a share equal to that of the USA). Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani assured that Italy is "in favor" of the proposal, that "politically" the green light has essentially been expressed but also that, now, we will have to "go into the technical and legal details".
In any case, this is an entirely internal debate within the Alliance, Kiev doesn't care where the money comes from, as long as it arrives. The shortage of ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles is now considered "critical". "We know that Ukrainian officers at the front have to make difficult decisions every day, rationing ammunition, with the constant worry that they will run out," underlines a senior NATO official. "And as we know it, the Russians know it: it is difficult to fight a conflict of attrition like this", adds the source, specifying however that there are no intelligence signals on Moscow's ability to carry out "significant operations" without a new "massive mobilization".
In Ukraine the sentiment is markedly gloomier. “There is nothing that can help us right now because there are no serious technologies capable of compensating for the large mass of troops that Russia will probably throw at us,” a group of officers linked to the deposed commander Valery Zaluzhny assure Politico . So we're back to where we started. Will Ukraine withstand the impact, waiting for new Western aid? "We are the only country in the world that defends itself from ballistic missile attacks almost every day: all available Patriot batteries must be delivered to us as soon as possible", urges Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, in Brussels to participate in the ministerial Born.
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