Giuseppe Conte is a polite man. So restrained, so quiet, that at first he did not notice how he became the most powerful man in Italy.
The non-party law professor from Florence is the big surprise of the summer. Just a week ago he resigned as head of government and remained only executive in office. He should clear his office and pack his bags. Now he's about to form his next cabinet. In between, he was still in Biarritz to negotiate with the G7 partners on environmental issues. "This political agenda can not handle distractions and delays," he said.
Was there something there?
Italy has undergone a remarkable change of power in a few days. Matteo Salvini, head of the right-wing Lega, has failed and becomes opposition leader instead of prime minister. His dream of the sole power has burst, instead of new elections there is a coalition change in the current legislature. In his place, the Social Democrats are moving into the cabinet. And the five-star movement remains in government, even though it has plummeted in the polls. What does that mean for Italy, Germany and Europe?
The financial markets react positively
In Rome, chaotic months come to an end. Salvini can no longer attack the own government as Minister of the Interior and Deputy Prime Minister and provoke the European partners. The experiment of a populist coalition, which tried to control the country via Facebook posts and marketplace speeches, also failed. Now the institutions of representative democracy are to be brought back to the center.
The political operation will normalize. Nevertheless, the country is facing troubled times.
Ciro de Luca / REUTERS
Normality promises, first of all, the new, experienced coalition partner, the Social Democrats of the Democratic Party (PD). They have made many prime ministers and ministers in the past - and will now try to bring stability into everyday government life. Say: to neutralize the fickle five stars, called in Italy Movimento 5 digit (M5S).
This should also benefit Germany and Europe. With the new coalition, it is unlikely that Italy will continue to increase its dramatic debt and break EU deficit rules. Without Salvini, the risk of a Euro crisis triggered by Rome, which can hardly be controlled, is falling. The financial markets have already responded positively.
The danger of a split in Europe is dwindling
A Prime Minister Salvini would have oriented Italy - after all, founding members of the European Community - even closer to Moscow and continued his long-term conflict with Berlin, Paris and Brussels. Conte, however, has sharply criticized the Lega leader's Russia connections and has always emphasized European and transatlantic values. Thus, the danger disappears that Italy continues to divide Europe.
Nevertheless, the situation in Rome remains unstable. And not only because the new coalition partners PD and M5S were enemies for years. The five stars have to rearrange themselves after their poll numbers halved under party leader Di Maio. While Di Maio did not rule out a reconciliation with Salvini until the end, Prime Minister Conte sharply rebuked the right-wing populist in open letters.
Massimo Percossi / ANSA via AP
Giuseppe Conte: No way passed him
The last speech before his resignation as head of the star Lega coalition used Conte in statesman-like pose to reprimand Salvini like a rascal. Since then, the hearts of many Italians fly to him. Incidentally, he was the new center of gravity of the M5S - although he is not party member. When Di Maio still feared for his post as vice-premier, Conte ensured that no way to him as a boss and the future government led by.
Salvini will not disappear
Also through the Democratic Party is a fine crack. PD chief Nicola Zingaretti must fear that the ambitious ex-prime minister Matteo Renzi with his supporters in the medium term to leave the party and found a new movement. It is quite possible that the new coalition will not hold until the end of the 2023 legislature. A majority in the electorate, they have according to surveys already today.
But now it's time to rule. After a nerve-racking August, the delegation of the Five Stars needed only a few minutes on Wednesday evening to signal President Sergio Mattarella their willingness to change their coalition. Previously, the Social Democrats had declared their readiness. On Thursday at 9.30 am, Mattarella will be welcomed in the Quirinal Palace of Giuseppe Conte and charged with the formation of the 66th post-war government.
And Salvini? The right-wing populist has fallen from 51 to 36 percent in recent polls. Most citizens did not like the fact that he triggered a government crisis on time for the holidays. But he will not disappear. Salvini has already announced to mobilize his supporters on the streets. In regional elections in autumn and winter, he wants to continue his triumphal procession and chase the PD more provinces, as so often since 2018.
Even in the opposition, the outgoing Deputy Prime Minister will continue to shape Italian domestic politics. When the new coalition came together on Wednesday, the German rescue ship Eleonore was waiting in front of Italian waters to land 101 migrants. As so often Salvini has banned the ship from entering Italian ports. And again two ministers of the five-star movement have signed the appropriate order. A turnaround in refugee policy would look different.
