They had fought for weeks, Sunday night they were celebrating, but gradually the Saxon parties caught up with reality. The choice, it says state politicians behind closed doors, has actually produced only losers. The CDU, because it brought the worst result since 1990 in a state election in Saxony, as well as the SPD. The FDP missed the re-entry into the state parliament. The Left has almost halved itself and lost its nimbus as a strong East Party. Even Greens and AfD remained below their expectations.
The only government option in Saxony is the unloved Kenya coalition, an alliance of the CDU, the Greens and the SPD. The three possible partners face complicated discussions, especially lengthy ones. The Greens let vote on every step towards government bank. On Saturday, a party council decides whether exploratory talks with the CDU will be recorded. In mid-October, a party congress will be held to discuss whether coalition talks should really take place. If there is a coalition agreement, all members of the Greens are asked what they think about it. The SPD also wants to ask their party base. There could be bad surprises.
So one expects in Dresden already, that it could drag on until December, until actually a new government is in office. According to the state constitution, the state parliament has four months to elect a new prime minister. After that, new elections would take place. Until then: everything the same. The previous governing parties CDU and SPD should be right. In the election campaign, they made no big secret that they would like to continue to govern together - without the Greens.
These are the issues that make government formation difficult:
- There is little trust between the Greens and the CDU. Five years ago there was once coalition talk between the two parties. After the Greens decided at a party congress, no coalition negotiations with the CDU to start, withdrew the then leading candidate Antje Hermenau from the party leadership. The psychological aspect already causes problems in Saxony-Anhalt, where already a Kenyan coalition ruled with rather moderate success. In addition, the CDU and SPD have so far governed comparatively harmoniously. The Greens are here the invaders in a well-rehearsed relationship.
- The contents of the CDU and the Greens are far apart. One of the sticking points: safety. While the Greens were just complaining against the newly created Police Act of the state government, the CDU campaigned in the election with a tightening. The CDU wants to expand a highway, not the Greens. Likewise, it could hook on the issue of education or dealing with extremism.
- Not only in the Greens there are reservations, especially in the CDU formed the resistance . On the evening of the election, parts of the conservative ValuesUnion declared that the CDU in Saxony should consider whether the party members should vote on a coalition. The political professor and CDU campaign strategist Werner Patzelt considers a government with the Greens wrong and warns that the AfD could be "fattened". It is questionable whether Kretschmer will assemble all these critics from within his own ranks.
The SPD state executive already unanimously voted on exploratory talks with the CDU and the Greens on Monday evening. When the CDU state executive met on Monday evening in Dresden, the mood was relieved, because more CDU candidates defended their constituencies, than was expected.
Above all, Michael Kretschmer is stronger from the election, because he had to fight in Görlitz against a strong AfD. And yet, the first critical questions were also raised in the meeting on the state board, how such a Kenya coalition should work. This week you want to go to SPD and Greens.
Whether the negotiations will succeed will therefore be a special challenge for one again: for Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer.