[London, Reuters]-British Prime Minister Johnson will confront this ruling and conservative party in a parliament with the opposition and opposition parties over the European Union (EU) withdrawal issue this week. Depending on this development, it would be no surprise that Brexit was postponed or the Johnson administration collapsed.
Under such circumstances, the general election scheduled for 2022 is likely to be put forward. Elections can be conducted in the following two ways.
(1) Mr. Johnson made a decision
If Johnson finds that Parliament is trying to block his policy to leave the EU by the end of October, he may aim for a majority seat so that he can hit the general election and carry out the plan as desired. . In that case, it is necessary to propose an election to the House of Representatives and get two-thirds of the fixed 650 people.
The opposition and labor parties have always called for elections, so it will be enough to get enough support for the election. However, former Prime Minister Blair warned that the general election for the party should be avoided with the “Elephant Trap”, a bad chess player.
The general election is likely to take place from mid-October, before the Brexit deadline, if the House has the necessary support.
The law requires 25 business days from public announcement to voting, which is usually set on Thursday. Therefore, if the procedure is completed by the 12th of this month, October 17 will be the voting day.
(2) Establishing a no confidence plan
The Labor Party also has a hand to submit a cabinet distrust plan.
If a majority of the members of the House of Representatives agree with the Cabinet's distrust plan, then the head candidate other than Mr. Johnson will form a cabinet or the Johnson administration can take over the reorganization in the next 14 days. If neither the new administration nor the Johnson administration get enough confidence during this period, a general election is held.
The shortest period established before the general election is stipulated by law, but there is no maximum limit. For this reason, Mr. Johnson may postpone the election after the Brexit at the end of October.
No one has ever tried the rule that the same or another cabinet must secure the parliament's confidence within 14 days to avoid the general election after the Cabinet distrust plan is passed. It is highly probable that there will be doubts about whether there is a right to establish a government or whether the prime minister has the obligation to resign.