The Bundestag members of the SPD have a lot to discuss when they meet this Thursday for a closed-door meeting in the Reichstag building. The state elections, the upcoming mid-term review of the grand coalition, the protracted candidate for the SPD presidency. All eyes are on Rolf Mützenich, who has led the group provisionally and is running for president at the end of September.
Mützenich announced at the end of July that he wanted to give the faction within the coalition a more independent role. But even at the first test now is one of the usual GroKo compromises from which is murmured so much in their own ranks. Ironically, in Mützenich's field of expertise, foreign affairs, the 60-year-old has to move away from a previous decision.
The question is whether the Bundeswehr deployment in the Alliance against the terrorist militia "Islamic State" will be extended beyond October. Mützenich had given it a clear refusal two weeks ago. Immediately before the parliamentary meeting but Mützenich mitigated his position now significantly. "Within the few remaining weeks, a complete withdrawal of the flight components is no longer secure," said the SPD politician to the SPIEGEL. Therefore, the federal government must now agree on "a follow-up mandate to deduct," the Group leader calls.
In plain English: The "Tornado" jets will not return to Germany on October 31, but will stay in Jordan for at least another few months. Mützenich withdraws from his most important demand for a withdrawal at the end of October.
The second part of the mandate for a training mission for the Iraqi army and the Kurds in northern Iraq also suggests a solution. Accordingly, the SPD had never assumed that the training projects of the Bundeswehr in Erbil and Baghdad should expire at the end of October 2019. Consequently, for him an agreement of the SPD seems quite possible.
The mandate is not popular in the SPD
What has led to the previous opponent of the mission for revaluation, he does not say. Instead, he blames Kramp-Karrenbauers predecessor Ursula von der Leyen for the tricky situation. "Until recently, we could not have imagined that the then Defense Minister in the Bundestag promises the withdrawal of the tornadoes and the tanker in 2018, but obviously only half-heartedly with the partners about the end of the 'Tornado' mission stipulated in the mandate and a replacement has negotiated, "says Mützenich.
Wolfgang Kumm / DPA
Rolf Mützenich
There is something to it. Von der Leyen had actually promised in the discussion about the extension of the mandate that the Bundeswehr would only have to spend a year in the region. Until then, according to the Leyen, she wanted to find partner nations that take over the German tasks. The words of the new EU Commission President were unequivocal: "We will do this for a full year, but then we expect someone else to trigger us, then we turn away from this mission."
Even then, von Leyen had made this assurance of pressure Mützenichs. The mandate is not popular in the SPD, in the last prolongation voted against a number of comrades - or did not even vote.
But there are also voices among the Social Democrats who consider a withdrawal irresponsible - especially Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. He called the use of surveillance aircraft in April "indispensable" and spoke at the Ambassadors' Conference a week ago for an extension. The foreign policy spokesman for the group, Nils Schmid, and the defense expert Fritz Felgentreu also campaign for a compromise.
The government must now "communicate about design and duration"
Mützenich has apparently realized that with his tough attitude he would not only disavow his own Foreign Minister, but would also plunge the coalition into a crisis. For the Union faction is fully behind the "Tornado" deployment and expects that CDU chief Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as newly appointed Minister of Defense prevails.
Kramp-Karrenbauer and Maas are currently negotiating how they can shape the new mandate so that it does not mean too much loss of face for either side. This means from Mützenich's point of view that there can be no more than a few months delay. The government now has to "agree on design and duration," says the group leader.
The defense minister faces the same problem as her predecessor: she urgently needs to find another nation capable of replacing the German reconnaissance "tornadoes".
On Friday, the topic is on the agenda of the SPD parliamentary debate, then Foreign Minister Maas is back from his trip to Africa. So far, it does not seem that Maas can report on progress in the negotiations.
