United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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SPIEGEL: Boris Johnson's request for new elections for October 15 has not made it through the lower house for the time being. Will there still be new elections in the UK?
Bale: There is no doubt that we will have new elections. Boris Johnson wishes these elections for October 15. I am convinced that the opposition parties have ruled for new elections after the 31st to expose Johnson. So he will not be able to keep his promise to leave the EU by the end of October.
SPIEGEL: What are the chances for the Tories to win the election?
Bale: After October 31, it will be much harder for Johnson to win an election. At this time he will have already asked the EU for a delay. Then Nigel Farage and the Brexit party can look forward to votes. But we also can not be sure if the Tories have a chance before this date. The Liberal Democrats can certainly scavenge some of the more moderate conservative voters. Nevertheless, the British people want an easy way out of the situation. That could speak for the Tories. Following the motto: "Get it over with." Even if a disorderly exit does not make things easier. For Johnson it's a risky bet. But is there any other way out of the current situation than new elections for him? It does not look like it.
SPIEGEL: Is the left-liberal Labor Party better off?
Bale: Labor is in big trouble. The party is currently only about 20 percent of the vote. Nevertheless, we must not forget that Labor can lay a pretty good campaign, they have already proven in 2017. Your social media strategy is much better. These strengths should not be underestimated. I think they have what it takes to become the party with the most votes.
SPIEGEL: Jeremy Corbyn is not necessarily popular with the British ...
Bale: That's an understatement. Corbyn is certainly the biggest problem for Labor. The anti-Semitism allegations and his image as a radical left hurt the party. For most he is just a worldly, bearded sandal wearer who refuses to bow at ceremonies. And as superficial as that sounds - voters decide that too. Labor certainly would have a better chance without Corbyn and there are people in the party who could do the job. But Corbyn will stay.
SPIEGEL: Which strategies will the parties use for the possible upcoming election campaign?
Bale: It's going to be a matter of Brexit for everyone involved. The election campaign statements will be pretty simple. For Johnson it will mean: Choose me and I will finally get out of the EU. In addition, the Tories will continue to struggle against the Labor attacks. In 2017, they successfully spread that the government spends too little money on schools, health and police. Labor will probably concentrate on preventing Brexit without a deal, or even the possibility of launching a second referendum. It is difficult to say whether they would subsequently advocate Britain remaining in the EU. We must not forget the Liberal Democrats. They will fully support a second referendum and stay in the EU. You know that's her strongest argument.
SPIEGEL: Is a second referendum really still a possibility?
Bale: Yes, but only if the opposition parties - Labor and the Liberal Democrats - emerge as election winners and forge a coalition. Then a second referendum would be quite likely.
SPIEGEL: What role do the 21 Tory rebels who Johnson threw out of the faction play when they did not want to continue supporting his course?
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Defiant conservatives: These are the Tory rebelsBale: These are very smart people who know the media well. Her approach was fine-tuned. By doing so, they have caused the prime minister quite a disgrace and painted the picture that the conservative party is very divided. No chairman wants voters to think that of his party - especially not before a vote. Johnson himself acts unscrupulously, almost dictatorially by the Rauswürfe. This also becomes explosive in the distribution of votes in parliament: the party members he threw out remain party-minded conservative members of parliament and cause problems for Johnson. Maybe Johnson has to swallow the bitter pill and meet them to secure the majority.
SPIEGEL: The resignation of his brother Jo Johnson was certainly bitter too ...
Bale: That's really embarrassing for the PM. He can not even keep his own brother in the party. It will be very difficult for Boris Johnson to leave this message behind.
SPIEGEL: The Tories have approved the law against the no-deal, after which there will be a three-month deferment for Brexit. Can you trust Johnson to stick to it?
Bale: Can you trust anything Johnson says? It would be very surprising if a prime minister withdrew a legal commitment. Still, it's one thing to get Johnson to sign a law and another to get him to send the letter to the EU asking for renewal.
SPIEGEL: And the EU would simply agree to the extension?
Bale: Most people would guess that the EU wants to prevent a no-deal exit. Perhaps the upcoming new election will also influence EU action. If you think in Brussels that after three extra months of re-election, there is finally clarity - whether in the form of a regulated Brexit or a second referendum - you may be inclined to agree. But it is true, we all assume that the EU simply says "yes".
SPIEGEL: If you had the decision-making power in the UK now ...
Bale: ... I would call a second referendum. I do not see how we get along without it. And this time, the government really needs to fulfill the people's mission.
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