Brexit Dispute: The Dilemma of Johnson Opponents

United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum

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"In recent weeks," wrote a British Tory politician on Twitter on Thursday, "I was torn between family loyalty and national interest." It is now time for others to do their job.

The man who declares his resignation with this tweet is Jo Johnson, until recently State Secretary in the government of his brother Boris - the Prime Minister.

Jo Johnson is a Remainer, a Brexit opponent, and the youngest guys of his famous relative were probably too much for him. The Brexit, once again becomes clear, can even disperse siblings.

The government, however, stubbornly sticks to its course: it wants quick new elections in order to be able to prevail with a new majority in Brexit. Unlike most MPs, Johnson wants to leave the EU on October 31, if necessary without a withdrawal agreement.

A first application for new elections failed on Wednesday in the lower house. But the government has already announced the next attempt for Monday. The opposition in turn faces a huge dilemma. The backgrounds.

What deal did Johnson offer to the opposition?

For new elections, the prime minister needs a two-thirds majority in the lower house - ie at least 434 votes. On Wednesday, however, only 298 MPs voted for the government's motion. The majority of the opposition first wants to pass a law through Parliament, which would force the Prime Minister to request a postponement of the EU withdrawal date in Brussels if no Brexit agreement is reached by 19 October.

The bill would nullify Johnson's promises to leave at the end of October. First, the government tried to slow down the initiative in the upper house. The Tory representatives have now abandoned this resistance.

It is likely that the anti-no-deal law will come into effect on Monday. From Johnson's point of view, the provisional turnaround makes perfect sense. He obviously hopes to be able to overturn the law after new elections - and at the same time puts the opposition under pressure.

Why does the opposition have a problem with new elections?

Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn pulls for months precisely with this demand through the country: new elections. In the polls, the party was long in the lead. In addition, Corbyn hoped to be able to negotiate as a prime minister a much more moderate Brexit deal. Now he finally has the great opportunity to push Johnson out of office.

But the times have changed. Under Johnson, the Tories are in the public mood again past Labor. Although the situation is so volatile that no one can predict the outcome of new elections. But if Johnson staged himself as a Brexit savior, the Labor Party would have to fear at least losses in their classic strongholds - because there the approval for the Brexit is often particularly high.

In addition, the Labor politicians smell a trap: If they agree to early elections, they offer Johnson the chance to pull through as a potential winner yet a hard Brexit. On the other hand, if they vote for a post-Brexit vote on October 31, Johnson's forces could harass Corbyn and Co. for weeks as scaredy-eyed rabbits and make them the main culprits in the Brexit disaster.

Mistrust of Johnson is gigantic. Some even blame the prime minister for simply ignoring a law against the hard Brexit - and to overthrow the country regardless and without hiding from the EU.

What plans are there?

At Labor, one is not yet agreed. Corbyn hinted that she would vote for new elections as soon as Queen's Brexit opponents signed the law. That could actually happen next Monday - so that would be possible but elections on 15 October. Others, in turn, want to wait until the delay has actually been applied for in Brussels - and then vote in November.

Johnson, on the other hand, has more options to press for speedy elections: a change would be conceivable in the law that fundamentally regulates the appointment of new elections. Such an amendment would require only a simple majority. However, then could also Johnson's opponents make additions - and set a re-election date that the premier does not fit, or even lower the voting age. For the Tories, who are comparatively unpopular among young voters, that would be a horror.

Another variant would be a vote of no confidence, initiated by the government itself. An unusual maneuver, which in turn brings dangers. Because the opposition would have 14 days in the event of a chance, the chance to set up its own government. Only then would there be new elections.