[San Francisco 6th Reuters]-US internet real estate broker Redfin ranks the extent of adverse effects on housing prices in the case of a recession in the US in 50 major metropolitan areas. Metropolitan areas where the economic impact of US-China trade friction is large also affected the ranking.
Redfin chief economist Darryl Fairweather pointed out, “If the United States expects a recession in the next two years, an international trade war is likely to be a factor.” “Domestic industries that depend on exports, such as automobiles and agriculture, are most affected and are likely to be staff cut.” Great economic impact of trade disputes between US and China
According to the ranking, Riverside, California, which has a low labor market diversity and a high ratio of home purchase price to income, lags far behind Rochester, New York, whose median home price is less than one-third of income. It was.
The ratio of the loan to the purchase price of the house, the rate of change in the house price, and the high percentage of houses owned by people over the age of 65 were also considered as risk factors and affected the ranking.
On the other hand, San Francisco, whose median home price is 15 times the income, surprisingly showed that the impact of recession is relatively low, ranking 35th out of 50 metropolitan areas. The background is the high percentage of people who buy homes with cash instead of loans.
According to Redfin, the fact that the impact of recession is the same ranking does not necessarily mean that the housing market will fall, but the market growth may slow down.
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