Germany is in an "educational emergency", warn unions already and mean especially personnel shortage: At numerous schools there is acute shortage of teachers. And that is likely to be even more dramatic at elementary schools in the future than previously thought. This shows a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation, which will be presented this Monday - and has revealed a calculation error.
The authors reviewed a forecast by the Conference of Ministers of Education (KMK), which estimates that in 2025 there will probably be 15,300 teachers missing from elementary schools alone. The result: the numbers are far below the actual demand. According to the Bertelsmann study, a total of 26,300 additional primary school teachers are needed - 11,000 more than predicted by the KMK.
Dirk Zorn, educational researcher and co-author of the study, warns: "On the basis of too low numbers, planning is currently being made which will last well into the next decade," he told SPIEGEL. "The scope of such decisions is therefore significant."
Zorn and his colleagues refer to their calculations on the need for teachers on current figures of the Federal Statistical Office for so-called population forecast.
3,232 million pupils will attend a primary school in Germany in 2025. The KMK, however, had assumed only 3.064 million students - 168,000 less. Also in the year 2030, according to the study more teachers are needed than planned by the KMK: Then there should be a difference of 172,000 pupils.
KMK calculated with outdated data
At the Conference of Ministers of Culture, one acknowledges having worked with outdated data. "The predictions of future teacher needs are based on official forecasts of population development, which can sometimes be outdated by unforeseeable changes," said spokesman Torsten Heil the SPIEGEL.
For the calculation in the past year one calculated with a population prognosis, which was assumed still from a smaller birth rate. Heil said that from now on, the KMK wants to produce an annual report that estimates the future needs of teachers. The next one is expected to be released in November. Heil: "The preparations are currently underway."
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Unforeseeable: consequences of school reforms
Education researcher Zorn says the future need for teachers can actually be predicted with relative certainty. On the one hand, the birth rate of one year of age serves as a basis, and on the other, the need for substitution for teachers leaving the service - for example because of illness or because they retired.
Other factors are difficult to estimate. "It's hard to predict migration movements," Zorn said. Normally, however, they would only have a small influence on student numbers. School reforms also created uncertainty. If, for example, a few years passed from the age of nine to the eight-year high school and back again, the number of teachers needed would have to be adjusted each time.
To alleviate the shortage of teachers, the educational researcher recommends several measures:
- Improve the working conditions of active elementary school teachers. "That's how more teachers might choose not to work part-time but to increase their hours," Zorn said.
- Create a better framework for lateral and lateral entrants to make the transition from other professions to school attractive.
- And: Teacher students should be specifically advertised at the universities for subjects in which there is a particular shortage.
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