Little time? At the end of the text there is a summary.
13 years and 127 days - that's the magic brand: for so long, David Ben-Gurion was in office as Israeli Prime Minister. Benjamin Netanyahu wants to break the record of the founder of the state. For this he has to stay in office for about six weeks, on the 16th of July the time has come. But in celebration mood Netanyahu is not. Because he has just failed with the attempt to form a government. That's why there will be new elections on 17 September.
This is mainly due to a man: Avigdor Lieberman. The secular politician refused to yield to the demands of the ultra-orthodox parties in Netanyahu's coalition (read more about the background here). Without the five members of Lieberman's "Our House Israel" party, the PM united only 60 of the 120 Knesset MPs - one vote too few.
Netanyahu and Lieberman have had a close and complicated relationship for more than 30 years. In the 1990s, the native Moldavian was only general secretary of Netanyahu's Likud party. After the Israelis had Netanyahu elected prime minister in 1996, Lieberman became his office manager.
REUTERS / Amir Cohen / File Photo
Avigdor Lieberman (l.) And Benjamin Netanyahu: "Lieberman is now part of the left camp"
In 1999 he founded his party "Our House Israel", which mainly supported immigrants from the former Soviet Union. In the parliamentary election of 2013, Netanyahu and Lieberman's parties then joined again on a common list.
The relationship between Netanyahu and Lieberman is shattered
Since 2001, Lieberman served as minister in six Israeli governments. Each time he resigned prematurely. Sometimes, because he was at the center of corruption allegations. Time out of tactical calculation. Just over half a year ago: In November 2018, Lieberman resigned as Defense Minister. He accused Netanyahu of being lenient with the radical Islamic Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Thus, Lieberman forced the prime minister to early elections in April. Now, after the deadline for forming a government, Netanyahu has failed again to Lieberman.
Thus, the relationship between the two former allies is finally shattered. "Lieberman is now part of the left-wing camp," Netanyahu said last week. An absurd allegation, given that Lieberman has repeatedly blamed the prime minister for being too lenient with the Palestinians in recent years.
Photo by Amir Levy / Getty Images
Netanyahu with artwork from Liebermans sitting in parliament: Open Break with the ally
The Palestinian Authority (PA) itself, the new elections in Israel are quite convenient. Eventually, it increases the chances that the US government will postpone the presentation of its long-awaited peace plan for the Middle East conflict, which the Palestinians are not expecting anything good anyway. Before the general election in April, Washington had postponed the submission of the plan with reference to the election campaign.
US President Donald Trump had urged once again urgently on Netanyahu and Co. shortly before the failure of the formation of a government. "Bibi and I can make the alliance between America and Israel stronger than ever before, so much more to do," Trump had tweeted.
Netanyahu will also be able to count on Trump's support in the upcoming election campaign. Personal friendship with the US president has been instrumental in helping the US recognize the Israeli annexation of East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights and have virtually abandoned the two-state solution.
A right-wing majority does not mean a majority for Netanyahu
On the one hand, Netanyahu's loss of power and the new election offer a unique opportunity to Benny Gantz and Jair Lapid, the opposition party alliance "Blau-Weiß". The two opposition politicians received as many parliamentary seats in the April election as Netanyahu's Likud: 35. Now they can hope to become the strongest force in September. But whether it will be enough to form a majority coalition in the Knesset remains questionable.
Because since Likud's first electoral victory under Menachem Begin in 1977, the electorate has been moving ever further to the right. A right-wing majority is therefore likely in the new Knesset. But that does not necessarily mean a majority for Netanyahu. The long-term prime minister is politically stunted, as his coalition partners have now realized. They could therefore fail him again after the September election in an attempt to form a government.
Two who, in addition to Lieberman, have high hopes of politically succeeding Netanyahu in the medium term, are Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett. The two are politically even further to the right than Netanyahu and had just before the election in April founded its own party, "The New Rights" - and the entry into the Knesset failed. Now they unexpectedly get a quick second chance. Netanyahu has fired Justice Minister Shaked and Education Minister Bennett earlier this week, probably because of her political ambitions.
AFP
Shaked and Bennett: Both politicians want to inherit Netanyahu
New Minister of Justice is the Likud backbencher Amir Ohana. He is the first openly gay minister in Israel's history. Netanyahu chose him because he had previously expressed his support for the planned judicial reform, which would ensure immunity for the prime minister. This is significant because investigations against Netanyahu are in three cases - for corruption, fraud and infidelity.
Israel faces a dirty election campaign
The investigation will be a key issue in the election campaign, which will cost Israeli taxpayers a lot of money - almost twelve million euros - and nerves. Dirty campaigns and aggressive social media voter advertising are widespread in Israel. For Netanyahu, two groups of voters will be decisive:
- The Arab voters, about 15 percent of eligible Israelis. Of them, to the detriment of the opposition camp, only a few were elected nationwide. In 57 out of 60 villages and municipalities where voter turnout was below 40 percent, according to the al-Monitor trade portal, only Israeli Arabs lived.
- Netanyahu is particularly popular in the periphery, such as in the small town of Sderot in the Negev desert or the Mediterranean city of Ashkelon, both located near the Gaza Strip. The party alliance "blue-white" could not beat there Netanyahu despite the numerous ex-generals in his ranks. If he manages to win again and in the other underdeveloped regions, his chances of a fifth term increase.
However, there has been a new round of fighting with Hamas in Gaza since the last election. Shortly before the Tel Aviv Eurovision Song Contest in early May, Hamas fired around 700 rockets at Israel. Netanyahu's opponents accused the prime minister of not reacting decisively enough once more. Whether this has hurt him politically, will show the 17th of September.
In summary: Benjamin Netanyahu has failed with his formation of the government - now has to be re-elected in Israel on 17 September. The career of the long-term premier is about to end. The judiciary investigates him and former allies prepare his successor. For the election, the votes in rural areas should be decisive.