United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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A few hours before the UK Parliament should bring him another defeat, Britain's PM Boris Johnson sounded unfamiliar on Monday: leaving Britain out of the European Union (EU) without a contract was a "failure of statecraft," he said. So far, Johnson had warned against a hard Brexit as exaggerated.
Is Johnson suddenly seriously interested in a deal with Brussels?
Although the prime minister had repeatedly stressed the importance of seeking a deal with the EU. Only he had done nothing yet. However, there are persistent rumors about alleged considerations in Downing Street, no longer holding to the demand that the EU repudiates the so-called backstop from a possible exit agreement - even if a government spokesman denied this.
The backstop is the most controversial point of negotiation between London and Brussels. It is an emergency clause designed to ensure that no hard-line is drawn between Northern Ireland and independent EU member Ireland, no matter how the relationship between Britain and the EU develops. In no case should the truce between Ireland and Northern Ireland be jeopardized, the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which ended the Irish conflict after decades of violence.
In Brexit poker gambled
So far, Johnson refused to include such an emergency clause in the withdrawal contract. Too much in his eyes would limit Britain's sovereignty. But Johnson has gambled in Brexit poker for the time being. He has maneuvered himself into a dead end and now has to look how he comes out of this again. A possible way out would be to find a deal with Brussels.
But how can Johnson negotiate a new compromise with the EU in just five weeks? His predecessor Theresa May had needed about two years.
For the time being, Johnson seems to have little other options than to revive Theresa May's original backstop plan. This was actually already agreed with the EU, but failed because of the domestic resistance of the Northern Irish DUP - those Northern Irish national conservatives who support the minority government of the Tories. So May rejected the plan again. But Johnson would no longer have to rely on the DUP voices today if other parliamentarians beat his side, who are now regretting their previous rejection of a deal.
Part of the EU single market
The original May Plan provided for the backstop that Northern Ireland remains part of the European single market. Border controls between Northern Ireland and Ireland would be dropped, but instead checks would be required between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. The DUP refused such a solution.
The EU could agree with this backstop proposal - after all, it had already offered it to Theresa May before. But it is questionable whether Johnson would go the old plan to satisfy his followers. So far, he has been so overbearing demands that he could hardly represent it now face to face, more or less with May's original deal.
Still, Johnson seems to hesitate, whether he should really get involved in the old version of the backstop. The British negotiators in Brussels have still not submitted an offer. So far, Johnson himself has only said that the same rules could apply, among other things, to agricultural products between Northern Ireland and Ireland - but not to all products as required by the EU.
If Johnson does not come up with a whole new move, he has the choice to break his promise to let the UK leave the EU by 31 October - or even compromise with Brussels. The PM seems to be weighing which word break for the voters could outweigh him.