[9th Reuters]-Rating agency Fitch Ratings said on the 9th that the turmoil in policy such as intensifying trade friction between the United States and China and the possibility of leaving the European Union (Brexit) without Britain's agreement He pointed out that it was "dark" and lowered the growth rate forecasts of major countries and regions.
He warned that if Britain left the EU without an agreement, the British economy could fall into a “major recession” in 2020, and the eurozone's growth prospects would “remarkably decline”.
The euro area growth rate forecast has been revised downward to 1.1% for both 2019 and 20 years. As of June, 19 years were 1.2% and 20 years were 1.3%.
Fitch pointed out that China's economic slowdown is a major factor in the recent slowdown in the euro area.
China's growth rate is expected to be 6.1% in 19 years and 5.7% in 20 years, down from the previous 6.2% and 6.0% forecasts, respectively.
The US growth rate has also been revised downwards, and is projected to be 2.3% in 19 years and 1.7% in 20 years. Previous forecasts were 2.4% and 1.8%.
As for the Asia Pacific countries, the outlook is generally stable despite the increasing risks surrounding the global economy, and only Hong Kong has a negative outlook.
Referring to the policy of major central banks, the US Federal Reserve (FRB) cut an additional rate cut of 25 basis points (bp) in December as the downside risk of the global economy increased after the US rate cut in July. Pointed out that this is likely to be done. He then expressed his view that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2020.
The European Central Bank (ECB) also expected to announce a large-scale mitigation measure very soon, including the resumption of asset purchases in October. The ECB will meet on the 12th this week.