SPIEGEL: Ms. Talshir, Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he wants to annex the Jordan Valley after his election victory. The outraged comments from abroad ranged from "breach of international law" to "war crimes". Is his announcement to be taken seriously?
Talshir: Actually, Netanyahu wanted to announce the immediate annexation of the Jordan Valley and the occupied territories. But it looks like the Trump administration did not allow him to do that. So his statement is actually a mere announcement. It is nothing but a sign of weakness. A sign of desperation before the elections next week, because the opposition is ahead in the polls.
SPIEGEL: Will Netanyahu and his Likud party still use the Jordan Valley announcement in the Knesset elections on 17 September?
Talshir: I do not think it really does bring him an advantage. The other major parties, including Benny Gantz's Blue and White Party, agree with him that the Jordan Valley belongs to Israel. Moreover: Netanyahu's talk of an annexation is just that: talk. Before the election in April, he had made similar statements. This also disappointed his voters.
SPIEGEL: What role does the Trump administration play for Netanyahu in these elections?
Talshir: Netanyahu wants to maintain his supposedly good relationship with Trump to the outside. This relationship is one of his greatest strengths in this election. But in truth, it starts to crumble: with his offer of talks to Iran's President Rohani, the US President Netanyahu missed a stroke. Even the dismissal of Trump's ultra-conservative security adviser John Bolton is a defeat for Netanyahu.
SPIEGEL: What influence does the US peace plan for the Middle East have on the election campaign?
Talshir: The Trump peace plan for the Middle East is to be presented completely after the early elections on 17 September, before the main features are to be announced. Trump probably did not allow Netanyahu to carry out an annexation now because it could pose a risk to his peace plan: the Palestinians would not listen anymore. At the same time, the right-wing parties are using the peace plan against Netanyahu: any concession that Trump makes to the Palestinians is attributed to the prime minister for his good relationship with the US president.
SPIEGEL: Will Trump ultimately support the annexation?
Talshir: I hope not. But the Trump government's argument has changed in comparison to previous governments. Trump says the six-day war of 1967 was a just war, a defensive war. Accordingly, a cast is justified and consequently also an annexation. This is illegal under international law. But if Netanyahu really wants to annex, he would have done so in the 13 years he was in power. But he does not. The Jordan Valley is located in the west of the country. What would happen to the millions of Palestinians sitting in the West Bank between the parts of Israel? They would probably lose their rights as citizens. Also because of the perception in the international community Netanyahu recoils from it.
SPIEGEL: Can Trump's peace plan defuse the situation in the Middle East?
Alaa Badarneh / DPA
The Jordan Valley in western Israel: "What would happen to the millions of Palestinians?"
Talshir: I am convinced that the Trump Plan contains only economic measures. Trade between Israel and Palestine is certainly one of them, just as it is with other moderate Arab states, such as Egypt and Jordan. While trade can contribute to peace, that is not enough. A diplomatic solution or a contribution to a two-state solution is certainly not intended.
SPIEGEL: What chances does Netanyahu have of winning the election?
Talshir: The result will probably be similar to the election in April. Then there is a stalemate. The question is how to deal with it this time. If Avigdor Lieberman of the ultra right-wing party "Our House Israel" sticks to a coalition with Likud, things will be tight for Netanyahu. As it stands now, he will try to convince Benny Gantz of an all-party government. Following the motto: With Trump on our side, we can now be strong. Gantz only wants to coalesce when Netanyahu resigns. For the PM, this election is a struggle for political survival.
SPIEGEL: Is Netanyahu resorting to drastic measures like surveillance cameras in polling stations?
Talshir: This is a strategy to deter Arab voters: Not everyone wants to be documented by Israeli authorities. Many of them will stay at home. Already at the election in April, there was a very low participation among Arab Israelis. Netanyahu is now every means right. In this election, he also fights not to have to go to prison.
SPIEGEL: Because of the allegations of corruption ...?
Talshir: It's pretty sure that Netanyahu is being charged. But if he wins the election, he hopes to pass a bill that allows the Supreme Court to be overruled by parliament. So he could govern despite an indictment. He wants to change the rules of the game. That is an immense threat to democracy.
