Why did John Bolton have to leave and now what can you expect?

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Washington (CNN) - John Bolton had to leave because he wanted to cancel President Donald Trump's global reality show.

For a while, the now former national security ex-advisor, who first caught Trump's attention with his tough way of speaking on Fox News, was useful to the president, sharing his desire to shake the world.

But like everyone else in Trump's dysfunctional foreign policy team, Bolton sold out his approval by getting in the way of his boss's impetuous instincts and seeking some attention.

Only in the strange orbit of Trump, the departure of a national security adviser considered an ideologue of aggressive stance can be seen, in some way, as the elimination of a stabilizing force. But he had a vision of American interests and the use of US power that, although hard-line, was predictable and logical, and was within the historical boundaries of American diplomacy.

Without him, Trump may have more room to please his more moderate instincts, which rarely match large speeches to actions. And American diplomacy is likely to reflect its principal author even more. It will be more impulsive, less strategic and more oriented to create iconic moments, such as the president's walk in North Korea with Kim Jong Un.

Democratic representative John Garamendi welcomed Bolton's departure given his "radical" instincts, but warned of the instability to come.

"This president has his own ideas, we often wonder what exactly is in that mind ... chaos rules the days," said Garamendi, a member of the Commission of Armed Services of the House of Representatives to Brooke Baldwin of CNN.

Trump urgently needs a victory in foreign policy

Like everything in Trump's foreign policy, there is a political explanation for the last storm that shook the White House.

Trump's first term, although he manages to traumatize the US allies. UU. and causing a global upheaval, it lacks in large part the great victories that the great negotiator promised in 2016.

North Korea, despite Trump's embrace, does not denuclearize. Iran is getting closer to building a nuclear bomb after Trump withdrew from an international agreement. China is growing rapidly and Russia is resurfacing after interfering with the US elections.

That is a problem since Trump contemplates a mediocre record and goes in search of iconic achievements - and longed for ornaments, like a Nobel Peace Prize - heading for the 2020 elections.

The president is in a dangerous political territory, with 39% approval in a new CNN / SSRS survey. Only 36% of respondents said they deserved re-election. Therefore, victories, preferably with favorable media coverage, are imperative, and soon.

Trump's team, given the lack of influence or experience, may have difficulty building major advances in foreign policy. But flashy summits will work just as well for a White House that turns even Trump's routine meetings with foreign leaders into campaign events designed to show him as a statesman.

"This probably indicates that Trump is desperate to carry out a series of agreements, even if they are cosmetic, before the 2020 elections, in Afghanistan, Iran and North Korea and sees Bolton as an obstacle," said Colin Kahl, a The former administration of the Obama administration affiliated with the US Foreign Policy advocacy group.

While Bolton, who even his many enemies will admit that he is a man of principle and a master of the Washington game, knows how to blow things up - like the nuclear agreement with Iran - he was increasingly getting in the way of president’s photography diplomacy .

More recently, Bolton opposed Trump's idea of ​​taking Taliban to Camp David near the September 11 anniversary in search of an agreement to bring soldiers back to the United States.

And, according to CNN sources, he told Trump in the face, contradicting an instinctive call from a president who demands obedience, in a way that would always shorten his time in office.

A triumph for North Korea

Bolton's skepticism about Trump's obsession with Kim from North Korea was also no secret. When Trump proposed his plan to visit his friend by correspondence in the Demilitarized Zone in June, Bolton went to Mongolia. He contradicted the president by saying that the North's short-range missile tests contravened UN resolutions. Pyongyang responded by calling it "human defect."

And Trump's adoption of his hardline position in denuclearization seems to have been part of the collapse of the Hanoi summit earlier this year.

In fact, Bolton's departure represents a victory for North Korea, which had been trying for months through its official means to open a gap between him and Trump. Now, coincidentally, the rebel nation says it is ready to talk to the United States again.

Bolton was also an obstacle for Trump when it came to Moscow. While the president passed the recent G7 summit causing Russian President Vladimir Putin to return to the club, Bolton never abandoned his burning suspicions of the Cold War.

Trump also seems to blame Bolton, an unbuilt hawk, for taking him to the brink of war with Iran after the demolition of an American drone over the Gulf of Oman.

Without him, Trump will have a greater margin to pursue his hopes of organizing a surprising meeting with the president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, at the United Nations General Assembly later this month.

Bolton is unlikely to leave in silence given his talent for public relations and the long list of media contacts. It seems unlikely that, while promoting his book, he emulates the obedient but embarrassing silence about Trump from former Secretary of Defense James Mattis.

When Bolton recalls his 19 months at the White House, he can claim several victories for his hardline foreign policy school. The Trump administration banned a prosecutor from the International Criminal Court from visiting the United States. The United States also withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council. And under his supervision, the United States withdrew from the nuclear agreement with Iran.

And the former national security adviser could have succeeded in one of his final acts by killing an agreement with the Taliban that critics see as a way of trying to hide a US surrender.

But Bolton's strong support for what seemed like an attempted coup in Venezuela by opposition leader Juan Guaidó didn't work and made the Trump administration look silly.

Finally, Bolton's departure is revealing for all the ideas he offers about life within the Trump White House.

His moment, on the eve of the commemorations of the anniversary of September 11, was also appropriate. Bolton was almost the last remnant of the neoconservative establishment of foreign policy that took power after the worst terrorist attack in the world.

Much of Trump's antipathy toward foreign entanglements, such as the invasion of Iraq and the longest US war he is trying to end, arises from the policies implemented by Bolton and his henchmen.

The current president seems to have no organized doctrine, beyond his mantra "United States First," which is primarily a branch of his campaign rhetoric based on the belief that the rest of the world is constantly scamming the United States.

Happy that Bolton is gone

Bolton's clash of personalities with Trump also offers an idea of ​​how this administration works.

He became the last key foreign policy official to cross an invisible red line for Trump: the appearance of having an agenda and a power base that is different from that of the president.

White House sources told CNN on Tuesday they believed Bolton had leaked Trump's now canceled plans to house the Taliban in Camp David.

Shortly after Trump fired Bolton, by tweet, two of his former antagonists, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, could barely hide their smiles.

The two men also showed that they had learned the lessons of how to work for Trump, which Bolton apparently never absorbed, that is, appease his wildest instincts and show no disloyalty.

"We work closely with the president of the United States," said Pompeo, who is not so ideologically different from Bolton, but is far from manipulating Trump.

"I don't think any leader in the world should assume that, because any of us leave, President Trump's foreign policy will change materially," he said.

Pompeo's comment reflected a reality, that the rest of the world, especially the US allies. UU. and Trump's subordinates have learned for two and a half years tumultuous. The foreign policy of the United States does not follow precedents, doctrines or any predictable course.

It's what Trump says he is at any given time. And the people who work for him can live with it or leave.

John bolton