Angle: British Prime Minister narrows the way to leave the EU without agreement, remaining options

[London, 10th Reuters]-Britain has narrowed the path to fulfilling its commitment to British Prime Minister Johnson, who claims to leave the European Union (EU) with or without an agreement on the end of October.

The British Parliament will ask the EU to postpone the deadline until the end of January next year, unless Johnson compiles a new draft agreement that will be accepted by October 19 Passed the withdrawal postponement law that obligates them to do so.

Mr. Johnson proposed twice to advance the general election to win a majority of the seats and, if necessary, create a way to achieve a dismissal without agreement, both of which were rejected by Congress.

What kind of hand will Johnson be able to hit next?

◎ New agreement

Johnson has announced that the EU will work to present a new withdrawal plan at the EU Summit to be held on October 17-18. If you win a different condition and the Parliament approves it, you can leave the EU with an agreement at the end of October.

◎ Ignoring withdrawal postponement law

The cabinet has expressed its intent to respect the exact content that is required, while showing its intention to respect the postponement withdrawal law passed by the parliament.

Under the law, Johnson will have to apply in writing to the EU for a postponement of the deadline unless he or she concludes a new draft agreement that will be accepted by October 19 or unless the parliament approves withdrawal without consent. .

Johnson, on the other hand, clearly denies calling for a postponement, and opposition is concerned that he may simply ignore the law and not apply to the EU.

Then the problem is more likely to be brought to court, and there is no precedent, so it is very unclear what will happen to the result and how long it will take to get black and white.

◎ Send two letters

The Deferred Leave Act stipulates the exact language of the letter that Johnson should send to the EU, but does not exclude the possibility of sending a second letter with a different view.

The Daily Telegraph reported that Johnson is considering this as an option.

If you send two letters, it will likely turn into a legal battle. Former Judge Jonathan Samption told BBC Radio that the second letter was not legal.

◎ Refuse postponed

In order for the EU to decide to postpone the withdrawal of the UK, it is necessary to agree on all member states.

Member countries other than the UK may feel uncomfortable being asked to postpone again, but are unlikely to refuse the postponement request and dare to take responsibility for withdrawal without agreement. Still, it is highly probable that the British Parliament will put some conditions on the postponement in order to avoid a confusing situation for several months. It is no wonder that a postponement period different from the UK request is proposed.

The British Senate raised concerns that the UK would refuse to accept the agreement as a member of the member countries while requesting a postponement. There is ongoing debate as to whether these actions are possible, and the British government has not responded directly.

◎ Prime resignation

Johnson also has the option of resigning without asking the EU to postpone withdrawal. According to the “Guide to Cabinet Operations”, which is a provision concerning the administration of the government of the United Kingdom, when the Prime Minister resigns, Queen Elizabeth invites the person most likely to gain the confidence of Parliament, and seeks the appointment of the next Prime Minister. In that case, because the resigning prime minister can recommend the right candidate, Mr. Johnson may nominate the Corbin party leader of the opposition / labor party to try to postpone the withdrawal.

The ruling and conservative parties lost their majority seats last week because one member moved to the Liberal Democratic Party of the parent EU, and 21 people who dismissed the government in favor of the withdrawal postponement law were dismissed.

Although the Labor Party has only 240 seats in the 650 seats of the House of Representatives, a majority can be secured by collecting support from other opposition parties and unaffiliated parties. Mr. Corbin has previously shown the idea of ​​leading a temporary “United Nations Cabinet” just for the purpose of postponing the withdrawal from the EU and then going to the general election.

Johnson expects to win the election, recapture the majority, and obtain parliamentary approval for an unapproved withdrawal.

In another case, the Labor Party may be passed by submitting a cabinet distrust plan after the resumption of parliament in mid-October, and Mr Johnson may be forced to resign. If no new administration is established within 14 days, a general election will be held.

◎ Approval of current withdrawal agreement (or its revised version) passed

The withdrawal plan compiled by the former prime minister May with the EU (a political declaration that outlines the relationship between the agreement, which defines detailed conditions such as the transition period, and the future EU) was rejected three times by Congress and eventually by Johnson I was buried. The main reason is that the EU's gap between the EU that wants to leave it and Mr. Johnson who wants to abolish it has not been filled around the “safety measures” that have been established to avoid strict control over the border with Ireland after the departure.

After the third denial, some Labor lawmakers suggested that they would agree in the next, so there is hope that this withdrawal plan would also collect enough votes.

For Johnson, however, it is politically impossible to present Mr. Mei's withdrawal plan again without correcting the safety measures. Not only is the Conservative Party taking the majority, but the anti-EU factions in the party oppose Mr. Mei ’s withdrawal plan for other reasons, so it ’s very uncertain whether or not we can get enough support. is there.

In addition, there will be less time to pass. Mr. Johnson will close the parliament until October 14, and will be required to postpone withdrawal by the 19th. Meanwhile, the schedule is filled with the EU summit meeting that Johnson expects to realize a new agreement.