[Berlin 12th Reuters]-According to the monthly index published by the German Institute for Macroeconomic Policy (IMK) on December 12, the risk of Germany going into a recession is 59.4% in September, It rose from 43% to the highest level since the winter of 2012/13.
In Germany, against the backdrop of trade disputes and the uncertainty over Britain's withdrawal from the European Union (EU), the manufacturing sector, which is highly dependent on exports, is in recession, and there are concerns that it will spread to other sectors.
IMK's Sebastian Durien pointed out that Germany's expectation that domestic demand will be able to avoid recession is increasingly weakening, “This will increase the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to further monetary easing.” .
The IMK index measures the recession risk for three months. In the calculation, in addition to economic indicators such as industrial orders, industrial production, and business sentiment, the probability of leaving the EU without agreement and emissions It takes into account the situation in the German automobile sector, which is affected by stricter regulations and the shift to electric vehicles (EV).
