United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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What is Britain facing in a no-deal Brexit? Just a "few potholes" on the way, says Boris Johnson. The UK is making all necessary arrangements for this scenario.
That was on August 19, the Times newspaper had reported on a secret government dossier on "Operation Yellowhammer" ("Operation Goldammer"). The public was alarmed that Johnson was trying to downplay the problems mentioned in the document after a no-deal Brexit.
Those who did not believe Johnson at the time are now confirmed. The government had to publish the dossier under pressure from the parliament. (The full document can be found here.) And only a few "potholes" can be no question.
- 80 percent of the truck traffic between France and England would therefore be days late
- At airports and train stations, new controls could cause havoc
- Certain food would be scarce - the selection would fall, prices rise. This condition could last for months, write the experts in "Yellowhammer"
- International financial transactions could be disrupted
- There could be supply bottlenecks for a large proportion of drug imports
These projections for "D1ND" - Day 1 after No Deal - come as no surprise: the six-page document essentially reflects what had already leaked to British media in August. But the release makes official how unprepared the government is for possible chaos.
"Prices will rise"
The government is trying to limit the damage. Johnson, his minister in charge of planning the no-deal brexit, Michael Gove and Secretary of Commerce Andrea Leadsom said the document described the worst case and was not a prediction.
However, writing was probably done so that the report does not look like a report on the worst possible scenario. Another version of the document was not distributed as an emergency scenario, but as a "base scenario", said Sunday Times journalist Rosamund Urwin. It had been leaked to the report in August.
Potential traders and consumers also deny that the described possible conditions are really unlikely extreme cases. The director of the British retail association BRC told the BBC that the document describes exactly what traders were expecting in the event of a no-deal. "The availability of fresh food will decrease, consumer choice will decline and prices will rise."
Since a no-deal Brexit would affect almost all areas of life, he would ultimately affect all the inhabitants of the kingdom - but first of all anyway low-income groups. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said the paper confirms that Johnson "is prepared to punish those who can least afford it". On the corporate side too, small and medium-sized companies would be hit harder by an unregulated Brexit, says the document. These had on average less good emergency plans than large companies.
Johnson is optimistic
Thus, "Operation Yellowhammer" documents the readiness of the Johnson administration to let the population slip into chaos with a clear-sighted eye, and to accept harm on a personal and entrepreneurial side. At the same time, the government's inability or unwillingness to plan for an emergency becomes apparent.
And it is precisely this emergency that occurs when Johnson leads Britain from the EU on 31 October, even without a deal, even though a law passed by Parliament prohibits him from doing so. Hardly anyone believes that he will still reach an exit agreement with the EU - especially as Johnson has shown little engagement in talks with Brussels so far. The EU, in turn, refers to the negotiations already concluded with its predecessor Theresa May.
Johnson's government feared that disclosure of the bad preparation would weaken its bargaining position in Brussels - at least that was one of the reasons for the secrecy. Johnson also said after the release that the country has many ways to make a no-deal Brexit workable. At least the latter seems questionable after reading "Yellowhammer".
The publication also makes the government look bad next to an opposition that has positioned itself partly against Brexit in general, but above all against unregulated Brexit - and now wants to score in the face of the haphazard government itself.
Labor MP Keir Starmer, Shadow Cabinet Minister for Brexit, said after the release, "The documents confirm the high risk of no-deal-brexit Labor has been working so hard to prevent, it was completely irresponsible of the government, too try to ignore the fierce warnings and hide the obvious from the people. "