Government crisis in Spain: last chance for the left

Little time? At the end of the text there is a summary.

On Thursday, Pablo Iglesias made himself very small ahead of Pedro Sánchez. After weeks of radio silence, the head of the Left Alliance Unidas Podemos called the Spanish Prime Minister - and tried to make him a "coalition on probation" tasty.

Until the adoption of the state budget in mid-2020, you could try it together in a government, Iglesias campaigned according to Spanish media reports. Then Sánchez's Social Democrats were free to throw out the Podemos ministers. Even in this case, Podemos would support Sánchez as head of government for the remainder of the legislature. A top politician can hardly fall lower on his knees.

But as soon as Iglesias was done with his application speech, Sánchez coolly replied that there was no basis for a coalition. Not even on trial. On Friday, Iglesias said again he hopes for a last-minute deal.

Sergio Perez / REUTERS

Podemos boss Pablo Iglesias

Because time is running out. This weekend, Spain's left has the last opportunity to find each other. To explore an agreement that will save citizens the fourth parliamentary election in four years - and save their country from new political chaos.

For Monday and Tuesday King Felipe has announced a final round of consultation with the party leaders. And only if Felipe is convinced that after his electoral victory in the spring Sánchez can now bring a majority in parliament, he will instruct him to try to form a government. For this, Sánchez would then have a very last deadline until 23 September. At the latest then, a new government would have to be sworn in.

Otherwise, there must be new elections: most likely on 10 November.

And it is exactly these elections that Sánchez is aiming for. A highly risky maneuver. For in the coming weeks, a verdict in the trial of Catalan separatists could fundamentally change the political balance of power in Spain.

Is Sánchez giving away his electoral victory last April? At that time, everything was almost perfect for him. He presented himself to his people as a guarantor of stability. He spoke with the Catalans, unlike his predecessor Mariano Rajoy, approaching the left-wing alternative Podemos - and sharply distinguished himself from the new right-wing party Vox. So Sánchez mobilized the center-left electorate. And for the first time in eleven years, the PSOE has again been the strongest force in parliament.

Many center-left voters wanted a coalition of PSOE and Unidas Podemos. But as soon as the votes were counted, let Sánchez 'comrades echo to seek a minority government. Without Podemos, the protest party, whose representatives have ever sympathized with the Catalan independence movement or were linked with Venezuela's leftist socialists under ruler Nicolás Maduro. Iglesias and his people on the other hand insist on posts.

"Sánchez does not want to have podemos ministers in his cabinet," says Günther Maihold, Spain expert of the science and politics foundation. "Iglesias has been watched by security agencies for years, and the fear is there that Podemos ministers could step on the side of the Catalan separatists or Maduro at a crucial moment." In the summer, Sánchez Podemos had promised to occupy some minor ministries with experts. Iglesias did not want to get involved and prevented Sánchez's re-election by parliament.

Now Sánchez Podemos offers only a kind of cooperation. The basis for this is a new catalog of measures of the PSOE: a kind of minority government program with 370 points. Among other things, should

• Low paid and pensioners, hospitals and schools get more money
• Small businesses are tax-exempt
• Companies have to pay higher taxes

A classic left-wing program, in part, the PSOE has adopted almost verbatim claims of Podemos.

"The risk of demobilization is great"

But that's probably not enough for forming a government, says Spanish political scientist Guillem Vidal from the Berlin Social Science Research Center. And even if Sánchez got the support of Podemos, he would still depend on the favor of Catalan or Basque separatists for a majority in parliament.

"The PSOE therefore prefers new elections," says Vidal. "She thinks she can win a lot." In recent polls, the Sánchez party is around 32 percent - three percentage points more than before, which would probably bring about 15 additional parliamentary seats. At least she would not need the separatists anymore.

But this calculus could also go backwards. "The risk of demobilization is great," says Vidal. Many center-left voters could stay home at the next election. Because PSOE and Podemos have not achieved an alliance. Because the right-wing Vox with their mediokren survey values ​​is no longer just a scarecrow. And because the economy starts to weaken.

But most of all, the Catalonia theme will shake up the election campaign. For in the first half of October Spain's Supreme Court is expected to announce its verdict in the trial against twelve separatist politicians. There are many indications of long-term prison sentences for the leaders. So far, however, has not been made public, which underpins the charges of violent rebellion. Most recently, the Catalan independence movement has lost its cohesion and momentum of 2017. A harsh judgment from Madrid, however, could bring the separatists to the barricades and plunge the region into chaos. "For Sánchez that would be a shot into the office," says political scientist Maihold. Political rights would benefit.

And even if it comes to the PSOE in the new elections, as you promised the polls, they would still be far from a separate majority. Sánchez would again rely on Unidas Podemos. And the thing would start again from the beginning: with anger in the bellies and uncertain outcome. Since the end of the Franco dictatorship 44 years ago, Spain's parties have not once managed to form a coalition government.

In short, in Spain, the Socialists of Prime Minister Sánchez and the Left Alliance Unidas Podemos have barely time to form a government. Should they not agree within the next few days, new elections are imminent, it would be the fourth parliamentary election in four years. These are likely to come Sánchez convenient, his party is clearly ahead in polls. But this strategy would also be risky - among other things, because judgments in trials against separatist politicians during the election campaign could turn the mood in the country.